UFC 310: 5 burning questions ahead of Alexandre Pantoja vs. Kai Asakura

We have a good one this week at UFC 310, even if the main and co-main are a little topsy-turvy. Kai Asakura can become the UFC’s first Japanese champion with a victory over Alexandre Pantoja in the main attraction, an astonishing piece of history considering such names as Yushin Okami and Yasuhiro Urushitani have at one time or another called the Octagon home.

But that co-main event? The one pitting two undefeated fighters, Ian Machado Garry and Shavkat Rakhmonov, both of whom have been designated as future champions by their faithful? That’s about as good as it gets.

Here are the burning questions heading into Saturday night’s action in Las Vegas.

1. Shavkat Rakhmonov is a beast of the most terrifying proportions — how does Ian Garry defeat him?

Petesy: I’m going to approach this with caution, Chuck, because I got roasted when this fight was announced for simply saying the Irishman can win.

As far as I’m concerned, a lot of people want Ian Machado Garry to lose because they don’t like his vibe, but they would be foolish to let that obscure their evaluation of his fighting ability. There are many too who feel that Shavkat will be too much for him, which could absolutely be true. It would be foolish to grapple with Shavkat in the same manner he did with Michael Page due to the Kazakhstani’s prowess in that field. Yet, the Dubliner is at his best fighting at distance, staying out danger and landing cleanly.

For me, that’s his best path to victory, but can he maintain that discipline for 25 minutes against a man who has never heard a final bell in 18 tests?

That’s a very different story, my friend.

Chuck: Petesy, there’s this guy I met at a bar once. I can remember him saying this thing about pressure that I felt was kind of sad, yet it might be applicable here. “Pressure,” he said, “pushing down on me, pressing down on you, no man ask for.” He took a swig and continued. “Under pressure that brings a building down, splits a family in two, puts people on streets.”

Wait a sec … hold on, he either said that, or the jukebox did. I was drinking so it’s a little fuzzy. In any case, it popped into my head because Rakhmonov comes from the Surxondaryo Region of Uzbekistan, and it’s an industrial kind of cold out there, so far into the Asian interior that people learn to treat space as a figment of their imaginations as a pastime. Garry is going to try to keep some space between them. And he may think he’s succeeding.

But just when he thinks Shavkat is safely in front of him he’ll feel an icy tap on his shoulder, turn around and see the devil himself closing his arms around his neck. The key is, can Garry get out of that situation? If he can, he might win.

2. Who would Belal Muhammad prefer to face in his next title defense — Shavkat or Garry — and why?

Chuck: Belal was already scheduled to face Shavkat, and he’d signed on for that confrontation without an ounce of visible fear. That tells me he likes his chances against Shavkat. And if we’re being real, I think he relishes the opportunity to be the one to take the “0” and debunk all theories of a “boogeyman” in the welterweight midst.

Of course, should Garry overthrow Shavkat in emphatic fashion and preserve his own immaculate record, I think Belal would make the adjustment and change the game plan settings to “onslaught.” The one thing Belal does well is shut down a strong man’s capacity to engage his own free will. He suffocates people and makes life hell. He has a better chance to do that against Garry than Shavkat.

So, I think on the surface he may say he wants Shavkat (and maybe he does), but deep down he wants Garry (and he definitely does).

Petesy: Garry seems to be far more confident in his grappling after spending time under the watchful eye of the masterful Demian Maia, but I still think there’s a notable disparity between what he offers in that area compared to Shavkat.

We saw how well Belal did against Leon Edwards in Manchester, when he completely dominated the contest with his relentless wrestling onslaught. I think Garry is far more similar to Leon from a style perspective, and for that reason, I think Belal would like that fight more than Shavkat.

I also think the fact that Belal has picked Garry to win speaks to some degree about his preferred outcome. Much like his muse, McGregor, the main concern for most fight fans when it comes to Garry is his defensive wrestling. Having yet to pass a test against an A-rated wrestler, I think Belal would certainly fancy his chances of posing that challenge if they met.

3. With a victory, where do you rank the unsung Alexandre Pantoja in the canon of flyweight greats?

Petesy: Let’s be honest, man, flyweight champions feel like they’ll always be unsung. If Demetrious Johnson, one of the greatest fighters of all time, was essentially deemed surplus to requirements by the UFC after having his 11-fight title defense streak broken by Henry Cejudo, it’s clear the disrespect extends much further than the fanbase and the pay-per-view market.

Nobody but Johnson and Pantoja have had two winning outings as flyweight champion. Henry Cejudo never defended his title, but went up to bantamweight and dispatched a juicy T.J. Dillashaw to attain “Champ Champ” status.

From a purely flyweight point of view, Pantoja is No. 2 for me. At 34 years old, it’s hard to see him ever challenging Johnson for the greatest ever status, but the fact he’s essentially cleared out the division to the point the UFC is rushing Kai Asakura into a title shot speaks volumes to his dominance at 125 pounds.

Chuck: Speaking of the relative dearth of flyweight contenders, whatever happened to that kid Muhammad Mokaev? Last I saw he was 7-0 in the UFC, and I could see him potentially upsetting the apple cart when he gets his chance … what? Cut? By whom? Why would they cut him?

I am with you on your assessment that Pantoja is No. 2. Cejudo would be the only guy who could rival Demetrious Johnson, and really, I use that word lightly because he eked out that split decision back in 2018 against DJ. Cut to two years earlier and Johnson smoked Cejudo with ease, so Johnson is as firmly a No. 1 in a division as they get.

The fun thing about Pantoja is that he has that dog in him. That driving something that has him digging deeper than these guys coming at him who treat it as a sport. For Pantoja, it’s more than that. It’s his whole existence. He puts his everything into every fight, so let’s revisit this question if he’s still on top in 2027 or so.

4. Lots of longtime veterans on this card. Other than the main and co-main events, which fight has you most excited for Saturday night?

Chuck: I still see Kron Gracie as the last in a line of storied Samurai, and that delusion carries into this fight he’s about to have with Bryce Mitchell. I saw Kron compete against Shinya Aoki at a Metamoris event in Los Angeles back a few years ago, and I remember there was this aura about him (that, upon reflection, may well have been a plume of smoke).

I know, I know. Dude has three UFC fights in over five years. He lost two of them. He went way off script against Cub Swanson, choosing to stand and trade with him as if that black belt he has was nothing more than a souvenir from some crazy uncles. Remember when Rickson Gracie reprimanded him for fighting with a low IQ?

Here’s where this fight gets fun. Bryce Mitchell fancies himself as a bit of a submission specialist himself, and if Kron is reluctant to go to the mat, Mitchell won’t be. We’ve seen stylistic clashes where opposites force each other into the deep water of their expertise, but we haven’t seen somebody try to pry the genius out of an opponent. That’s what Mitchell might do here with Gracie.

Petesy: I’ve been a “Korean Superboy” mark ever since he arrived in the UFC in 2014. He joined the roster just as “The Korean Zombie” was sent home for military service, and the three knockouts he banked on arrival had me firmly believing he would be a title challenger.

Then came the defeat in his violence orgy with the man you mentioned, Cub Swanson, followed by two more stoppage losses. After that, Doo Ho Choi had his own two-year military stint to take care of. He’s since returned, claiming a draw against Kyle Nelson and, most recently, a knockout win over Bill Algeo.

Ten years later, I admit I was probably overzealous in my endorsement of Choi as a title contender, but dammit the man is still exciting as hell to watch. He’ll meet the endlessly entertaining Nate “The Train” Landwehr on the undercard of UFC 310, and I think that has fireworks written all over it, Chuck.

5. Any chance the winner of Ciryl Gane-Alexander Volkov fights for a title next?

Petesy: Which title are we talking about here, mate? The one Tom Aspinall holds and seems destined to defend again or the one Jon Jones doesn’t seem too keen on being “challenged” for?

The division is a mess and there is one fight to be made to clean it all up, which involves neither Ciryl Gane nor Alexander Volkov. That said, I’ve been adamant that we’re hurtling toward an Francis Ngannou-Jones situation with Aspinall and Jones, so it’s not completely insane to think a win for Gane could see him face off with Aspinall in the aftermath.

In a world where Jones isn’t in this equation, that all-European clash is a banger of the highest order. However, if it happens while Jones is still sporting gold around his waist, he will cast a large shadow over the event much like Aspinall did at UFC 309.

Chuck: Jon Jones is sending all the right signals. He says that he definitely wants to fight again, which is nice, given that he flirted with retirement. He says that negotiations are already underway, alluding to a summer return. All of this is good. But we’ve seen Jones in situations where “good” can turn to “befuddling” and “bad” in a hurry.

The Aspinall-Jones unification bout is the most anticipated of 2025. If it doesn’t happen it would be a travesty to the belt system. And if it doesn’t happen, my guess is that Ciryl Gane — should he take care of business in Las Vegas against Volkov — will factor into the equation. He is Mr. Fallback, and I could definitely see a scenario where Aspinall agrees to defend the interim title (again) against Gane.

Would this be desirable? Are we looking at something the public would rather not discuss? Does an Aspinall-Gane fight move the needle while Jones is out there in Albuquerque holding the actual title hostage? No, no, no. These are worst-case scenarios.

Or maybe not. If Volkov wins, Aspinall will have nothing but retreads in his crosshairs if Jones doesn’t play ball. Shudder. Anyway, my answer to this question is, “God, I hope not!”