The Daily Sweat: Buccaneers are very good, but giving a lot of points to Eagles

·NFL writer

14 October 2021 at 9:11 am·4-min read

It's hard to bet against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

The Buccaneers have multiple players who can score anytime, no matter where Tampa is on the field. Tom Brady can always find them, too. The defense still has plenty of stars. The Buccaneers won last year's Super Bowl and are off to a 4-1 start this season.

Yet, if you're going to bet the Bucs, it'll come with some extra points attached. The Buccaneers are 7-point favorites at BetMGM against the Philadelphia Eagles on Thursday night.

The Buccaneers are playing well, yet they're just 2-3 against the spread. They have been favored in all five games, and it'll be a while until they aren't favored. It's a marquee team and oddsmakers weren't going to bring the line down at all after Brady threw for more than 400 yards and five touchdowns last week in a blowout win over the Miami Dolphins. You're paying full freight and then some to take the Bucs on Thursday night, or probably all season. Their against-the-spread record might not look too great by the end of the year.

The Eagles are coming off a win last week at the Carolina Panthers, who aren't a bad team. The Eagles didn't look great but rallied late to win it. Jalen Hurts can make plays. The defense has been bad at times but did have a decent performance last week. The Eagles aren't an incapable team.

Getting a touchdown at home, even if home-field advantage doesn't matter much anymore, is a lot. Especially for a prime-time game. I'll take the Eagles +7. Taking a home dog in a prime-time game might be an outdated method, but it still seems like too many points. Because the Buccaneers are so popular these days, surely most bettors will disagree.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady (12) leads his team in a prime-time game on Thursday. (Photo by Cliff Welch/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) (Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Here's a first look at Thursday's sports betting slate:

What other bets look good for Thursday?

Neither of these teams will try to run much, assuming the Eagles can keep it close. The Buccaneers have a great run defense and the Eagles don't trust their run game much anyway. Tampa likes to air it out. Therefore, over 52.5 seems like the better side, although that's steep.

Jalen Hurts' passing attempts are 37.5 and I like the over there. His last three games he has attempted 39, 48 and 37 passes, and the Eagles are going to pass a lot regardless of game script. I'd also take Hurts over 0.5 interceptions at -130, Kenneth Gainwell over 23.5 receiving yards and Miles Sanders under 34.5 rushing yards even if that total is quite low. You'll see a lot of passes tonight, especially from the Eagles.

Isn't there a big baseball game too?

Yep, it's probably the game of the year for MLB. Including playoffs, the Giants and Dodgers have each won 109 games. One of those teams won't make the NLCS after losing tonight. The Dodgers and Giants meet in Game 5 of the NLDS, loser goes home. To add to the suspense, the Dodgers and Giants both have -110 odds at BetMGM.

Logan Webb, who has been lights out for the Giants, faces 20-game winner Julio Urias of the Dodgers. I'll ride with Webb and the Giants, who have been underestimated all season. But you won't see many elimination games like this one.

Anything else looking good?

There are two college football games. Navy travels to face Memphis, which is a 10.5-point favorite, and Georgia Southern plays at South Alabama. South Alabama is -3.

What's the best bet?

The bet I like most is Jalen Hurts' over passing attempts, but that's a weird prop to go all-in on. Let's make a co-best bet with the Eagles +7. I won't pay the Buccaneers tax.