It's up to Serena who wins tonight: Stubbs

Australian Open women's final: Serena Williams v Maria Sharapova

Serena will go into the final as an overwhelming favourite despite some concerns over her health the last couple of days.

We saw in her matches against Cibulkova and even Keys, she was not 100 per cent but even when she is under the weather her game still speaks for itself.

She would have to be on her death bed not to play well.

Everyone has already heard about Maria’s 0-15 record against Serena in recent years and it will play a part.

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The psychology of going into a match against someone you haven’t beaten for a long time can be hard to overcome.

But the thing we haven’t said much is that not all those matches were big beatings. There were some very close matches, she came close to beating her a few times.

The real problem for Maria is that everything she does well, Serena does as well if not a little bit better.

Her big serve, her movement around the court. Serena’s serve is bigger and she is faster.

We also talk about Maria’s mindset, she never gives up, she has the mindset of a champion.

But no one beats Serena in that category. So it is a big ask for Maria.

Maria will come out though with confidence. She knows she has the game to beat anyone.

And this match she has nothing to lose.

Most times Maria comes out on the court she is the big favourite. But this match, Serena will be favourite and this can allow Maria to be free and loosen up and play some great tennis.

Maria has to come out and serve brilliantly, she knows that, she said it yesterday in her interview.

She really has to focus on winning those service games, keeping the scoreboard pressure on Serena. Then anytime she sees a second serve from Serena she has to pounce.

She cannot afford to get into long-hitting rallies, Serena is too strong for that.

Really for me though it is up to Serena.

If she comes out and plays near her best she will win. Her best is still just too good.

Rennae Stubbs is a Channel Seven tennis commentator.

The Australian Open women's final will be shown LIVE on Seven from 6.30pm (AEDT).