There’s some faith in this Tampa Bay Buccaneers run. Or maybe nobody wants Tom Brady as an underdog in the Super Bowl.
Since BetMGM released its opening line for Super Bowl LV, there has been a key move on the point spread and the over/under.
The Buccaneers opened as 3.5-point underdogs against the Kansas City Chiefs, but by Monday morning it was down to Buccaneers +3. Since 3 and 7 are the most common winning margins in football, that’s a significant line move.
And after a conference championship weekend with a lot of scoring, early bettors thought the Super Bowl over/under was a little too high.
Super Bowl over/under ticks down
The over/under for Super Bowl LV opened at 57.5. There has never been a Super Bowl with a closing number on the over/under higher than 57.
That line moved too. It’s 56.5 at BetMGM. The line could still go back up — most casual bettors like betting the over, and the Super Bowl has more casual bettors than any other event — but it came down after opening at a number that would have been a Super Bowl record.
Most bettors were on the overs in the championship round and both hit. There weree 57 points in the NFC championship game and 62 in the AFC championship game. Patrick Mahomes and Tom Brady both had productive seasons and playmakers around them, and there’s a good chance the majority of bets end up on the over.
If you like the over, you might not want to wait too long to take it.
Buccaneers did well for sportsbooks on Sunday
The interesting part of the line moving toward the Buccaneers is that their win Sunday was horrible for most bettors.
A large majority of bets were on the Packers in the NFC championship game. When the Buccaneers won it was the best outcome for any single event for BetMGM in 12 months, according to BetMGM VP of Trading Jason Scott. Maybe bettors don’t want to lose big on Brady twice in a row.
Brady hasn’t been an underdog in a Super Bowl in 19 years, even though this is his 10th trip to the NFL’s championship game. The one time Brady’s team wasn’t favored, his New England Patriots won as a 14-point underdog over the St. Louis Rams.
The lines for the side and total have already had some movement. There’s 13 more days until kickoff for bettors to weigh in.
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