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Should Spurs be finishing seventh?

chris collinson - bbc sport statistician
·1-min read

Ange Postecoglou has taken charge of Tottenham for 42 Premier League games - so how have they done?

They’ve taken the fifth-most points along with Newcastle and Chelsea (70), seven fewer than top-four rivals Aston Villa.

Tottenham would be seventh in the Premier League based on their last 42 matches.
[BBC]

The good news for Spurs is that they have not been too different to Villa in terms of expected goals (xG) but Villa ran pretty hot last season. The question there is whether Emi Martinez or Ollie Watkins will have such good seasons again this time around.

The bad news is that Chelsea have generally been stronger, although not as much as simple xGD would suggest (17.1 v 5.4) because the Blues won a league-high 12 penalties last season (Spurs won just two) and Enzo Maresca's side are unlikely to get so many again.

Tottenham's expected goal difference for their last 43 league games is 5.4. That is seventh in the Premier League, behind Aston Villa, Newcastle, Chelsea, Liverpool, Arsenal and Manchester City.
[BBC]