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What do Scotland need to make last 16?

A win against Hungary secures Scotland either second or third - most likely third - and potentially a place in the last 16.

To finish second would require a German victory over Switzerland, and one hell of a goal swing. The Swiss currently have a goal difference of +2 while ours is -4.

If a six-goal swing happens and the goal difference finishes level (both teams have scored four goals and conceded six) then lower disciplinary points would decide second, which Switzerland hold.

We'd take a scrappy 1-0 though, getting Scotland to four points - which is usually enough to be one of the best third-placed teams.

What about a draw? Well, mathematically, Scotland do not need to win tonight. A draw would move them to two points which might - big might - be enough to progress as one of the best third-placed teams.

Should any two of these three things happen, a point would be enough for Clarke's men to sneak through on the two-point mark:

  • Spain and Italy both win their final games in Group B - against Albania and Croatia respectively - on Monday

  • Denmark overcome Serbia and England beat Slovenia by four goals in Group C on Tuesday

  • Portugal and Turkey earn victories in Group F on Wednesday over Georgia and Czech Republic respectively

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[BBC]