After recently reviewing the initial three draft rounds, we now move to Rounds 4-6, which is a place where many fantasy leagues are won and lost. Picks 31-60 contain a group of players who generally have enough upside to be league-winners but also enough warts to keep their ADPs from rising too high.
Here are the best and worst options at this point in the draft.
Round 4: Picks 31-40
Safest Bet: A.J. Brown, Tennessee Titans – 39th overall
I’ll be honest: No one in Rd. 4 feels especially safe to me. I went with Brown in this spot because of his insane talent. Anyone who watched this stud during his rookie year knows that he has the type of game-breaking ability that simply cannot be controlled over 16 games. He also has great chemistry with Ryan Tannehill, and the Titans are unlikely to be able to fully repeat their 2019 formula of positive game scripts that led to an immense lean towards rushing the ball. Nearly all of Brown’s heavy usage games came in the second half of the season when he produced 703 yards and 5 TDs.
Underrated: Chris Carson, Seattle Seahawks – 33rd overall
Having recovered from a late-season hip injury, Carson is ready to resume his role as Seattle’s workhorse back. The bruising runner has averaged 1,190 rushing yards in the past two seasons, and he should once again carry a large workload in his team’s run-heavy offense. And even though Carson will never be confused with the elite pass-catching backs, his 2019 totals of 37 catches and 266 receiving yards show that he has become a factor in the passing game. With the steady hand of QB Russell Wilson leading the Seahawks offense, Carson is set up for many productive Sundays.
Overrated: Todd Gurley, Atlanta Falcons – 31st overall
Yahoo colleague Scott Pianowski likes to say that Gurley is the oldest 26-year-old in the NFL. Unfortunately for Gurley and the Falcons, Scott is right. Injuries have piled up for the Georgia product, and last season he was a non-factor in the passing game while also averaging just 3.8 yards per carry. Even though the Falcons can offer Gurley a large workload, his body is likely no longer up to that task. In fact, Gurley has the lowest floor of any player currently being drafted in the top-40.
Round 5: Picks 41-50
Safest Bet: Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks – 41st overall
Having started every game since debuting in 2012, Wilson is arguably the safest option at any point in the draft. The undersized star has exceeded 30 passing TDs in four of the past five seasons, rarely throws an interception, and does plenty of damage with his fleet feet. Although he lacks the ceiling of Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson, Wilson compares favorably to every other QB option.
Underrated: Zach Ertz, Philadelphia Eagles – 46th overall
The fantasy community seems to be bored with Ertz after five straight seasons with more than 800 yards. The native Californian is Philly’s top receiver, and he has reversed early career struggles to find the end zone by tallying 22 TDs across the past three seasons. Although head coach Doug Pederson has a little more weaponry in his WR corps this season, he should still point QB Carson Wentz in Ertz’s direction at least 130 times.
Overrated: Le’Veon Bell, New York Jets – 45th overall
To put it mildly, Jets head coach Adam Gase and his star RB are not on the same page. It seems that Gase never really wanted Bell, who arrived with the team expecting to be a workhorse back but instead struggled last season (3.5 yards per carry) and has mostly received negative training camp reviews thus far. Smart managers will not expect Gase and Bell to find common ground and will instead see the pitfalls of drafting a past-his-prime rusher on a rebuilding team that could be a mess when we get to fantasy playoffs.
Round 6: Picks 51-60
Safest Bet: DK Metcalf, Seattle Seahawks – 53rd overall
Metcalf is coming off a dazzling rookie season that included 900 receiving yards and seven scores. The physical specimen also gained steam as he got his feet wet, tallying 498 yards in his final eight regular season games and 219 yards in two playoff contests. The combination of his physical talent and an ultra-reliable QB at the helm gives Metcalf a high floor, and he could break out by becoming more comfortable in the NFL or having his team increase their passing rate.
Underrated: David Johnson, Houston Texans – 56th overall
Most leagues have at least a few managers who refuse to draft the oft-injured Johnson, which tends to lower his ADP. But the talented 28-year-old has entered a prime spot for a bounce-back season, as Houston is committed to giving him a major workload and has one of the league’s best QBs. Johnson is one of the biggest boom-or-bust options on draft day, but we could say the same thing for players such as Melvin Gordon III and Todd Gurley, who are typically drafted much earlier. At pick 56, Johnson makes sense.
Overrated: Devin Singletary, Buffalo Bills – 59th overall
Singletary is undeniably talented, but I have some reservations regarding his role and how it will translate to fantasy success. The small-college product will share time with rookie Zack Moss, who has superior size for goal-line work and also has some skills in the passing game. Additionally, the Bills best option for short rushing scores is Josh Allen, who has tallied an eye-popping 17 rushing TDs in two seasons. Singletary will get his share of touches, but they may not be the type of touches that fantasy managers are hoping for.
Stay tuned for Rounds 7-10!