QF3: Springboks vs Australia

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RiDdLeR
28 Apr 2010

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Posted Mon 03 Oct 2011 12:04
History
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Played 73 times
Springboks 41 wins
Australia 31 wins
Drawn 1 time


Last 5 games
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Australia 14-9 away
Australia 39-20 at home
Australia 41-39 away
Springboks 44-31 at home
Australia 30-13 at home


Prediction
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Two vastly different sides here and both of them are playing very ordinary rugby. The Springboks, courtesy of their 16th man, the referee, managed to top their group despite being outplayed and outmuscled by Wales and the Samoans. The major factor in those two wins were Frans Steyn and his monster penalties but he is gone for the tournament now. The Wallabies limped into second place in their pool and huge questions have been asked about their forward pack which where monstered by the Italians, Irish and for periods by the Russians as well. Added to this is the alarming amount of injuries in their backline. They had to call on replacements and even the replacement got injured meaning a replacement for a replacement was needed.

Unlike the other quarter finals, these two sides have vastly difference strengths. South Africa is more dominant at the set piece and have the scrum to dominate. Australia though have it all over South Africa in the backline. For Australia to win they will need to muscle up in the tight five and get their fair share of the ball, something they have failed to do all tournament. For South Africa to win they will need to stop the lethal Australian backline and the way Wales and Samoa picked holes in it this could be a problem.

One thing I noticed about the Springboks, not only against Wales and Samoa but also against the Wallabies and All Blacks B side was a noticable fade out in the second half. These game they have either desperately hung on or been overrun. They are not finishing games out strong and are limping over the line  


 

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RiDdLeR
28 Apr 2010

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Posted Mon 03 Oct 2011 12:05
Expect South Africa to play a 10 man game here, slowing the pace at every opportunity, while Australia will be more expansive. Australia will try win this with tries while South Africa will look for the penalty avenue. The loss of Frans Steyn is huge for the Springboks and they will need much better field position now for the penalty game. Expecting this to play out a lot like the last time they met. That day the boks dominated up front in the first 40 but the Aussies cracked their line time and time again, failing with the last pass on a number of occasions. Eventually they wore the boks down and overran the tiring boks. I expect this to be tight for the first 50 minutes or so before the Aussies start cutting the boks to ribbons.

Australia to win by 10 points
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Grist
28 May 2010

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Posted Mon 03 Oct 2011 19:13
Riddler your anti-Bok and pro-Wallaby rants are as boring as ever.
The Wallabies did not finish top of their easy pool after losing badly to Ireland. Since then the WBs have not managed to win any game with authority. They have been blighted by injuries. They are a one-sided team that cannot play ten man rugby due to a weak forward pack. They can only play a League type running game. Their defence has been poor and even against minnows like the US and Russia they leaked many tries. Cooper's defence is so poor that they use substitute players to defend in his place. Their kickers have struggled to find the posts, despite flying in ex-Bok Van Straaten to coach their kickers. Their captain (like the rest of the team) is inexperienced and at the WC is clearly out of his league. At this WC the Wallabies have shown that they cannot handle the WC pressure and lose composure in tight games. The WBs just do not have top quality substitutes.
 
The Springboks finished on top of their pool, which has been the most difficult of all the pools. They are favourites after impressive wins against Wales (who you rate at nr2!) and Samoa (who beat the Wallabies recently). In all games the Boks impressed with the way they played an expansive game, scoring tries galore. The Bok scrum dominated all in front of it. Most impressive has been their solid defence which won them at least two big games and will win the WC for any team. Morne Steyn kicks the new ball the best of all and is the top points scorer at the WC. The Springboks are the most experienced team at the WC. They have kept composure and won tight games against top opponents at this WC. The Boks have top quality substitutes.

My pick - the Boks will win due to many advantages, but most of all experience that will allow them to handle the pressure.
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muzz

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Posted Mon 03 Oct 2011 19:50

Australia if it's dry.
Bokkies if it's wet.

Will tip this at the last moment.

Muzz
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RiDdLeR
28 Apr 2010

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Posted Mon 03 Oct 2011 20:03
Bryce Lawrence is the referee here so with a kiwi in charge that will favor the Aussie game more with more flowing rugby allowed
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RiDdLeR
28 Apr 2010

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Posted Tue 04 Oct 2011 11:43
Looks like Iaone is fit to go. That will mean Aussie can put a backline out of Genia, Cooper, Barnes, Ashley-Cooper, Iaone, OConnor and Beale. Watch this backline put tremors into the Springbok brick wall in the first half before sending it crumbling down in second half. Wonder if Deans will start OConnor in the centres and leave Ashley-Cooper in the wing. OConnor can be far more damaging in the centres and is wasted on the wing.
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Chopper
26 Mar 2009

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Posted Tue 04 Oct 2011 12:19
Hopefully Barnes & Sharpe will get a start, I think they bring stability & confidence to the side.
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RiDdLeR
28 Apr 2010

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Posted Tue 04 Oct 2011 14:59
Barnes should be a definite for you guys. Your centres were ordinary and their injuries is a blessing in disguise giving Barnes the spot he deserved. Uncle Fester might struggle to get his spot with Horwill/Vickerman there.
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Viva Le France
09 Oct 2008

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Posted Tue 04 Oct 2011 18:56

More like with Lawrence as ref the favour is to the WB's. Why not use a Nambian or Zimbabwe ref. We all know the play on that one, don't understand why its not a Nothern hemisphere referee that is not biased.  Bokke well done so far.
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Grist
28 May 2010

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Posted Tue 04 Oct 2011 19:47
The Springboks will like Lawrence as the ref.
In the last 3 Wallaby games he refereed, the penalty count was 34-19 against the Wallabies. 
Lawrence penalised the Wallaby scrum 6 times against Ireland.
Those numbers look good for the Springboks.

The long range weather forecast is strong wind and rain. Good weather for 10 man rugby. The Springboks excell at 10 man rugby, while the Wallabies cannot play 10 man rugby due to a joke for a scrum. The Wallabies can only play running rugby, but cannot win in wet weather. 

The planets are aligning for a famous Springbok victory.
Oh Springboks, thee will holdeth victory in thy arms and fame will shineth from thy eyes.
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Mel
08 Oct 2008

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Posted Tue 04 Oct 2011 23:29
Grist 

You confound me man.  Riddler gives a pretty accurate summation of the strengths and weaknesses of both teams and you accuse him of an "anti Bok rant."  Yet you entitle yourself to an analysis of the Aussie team but do not think it is anti WAL.  Go figure.

This game for me is the hardest to pick.  I think both teams are very even.  The BOKs are stronger in 10 man rugby so if it wet they will have the advantage.  If it is a dry pitch then the advantage goes to Aussie.  I prefer the running game of rugby and so I want Aussie to win.  However, the BOKS could pull this one off just as easy.

My pick is Aussie. (if wet I am with Muzz and will go with BOKs)

Blessings

Mel
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RiDdLeR
28 Apr 2010

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Posted Tue 04 Oct 2011 23:44
Hey Grist
http://www.metservice.com/towns-cities/wellington
Forecast for Sunday - Fine and dry
Perfect Wallaby Rugby Weather

Watch for the big South African second half fade out. You may have the experience but that comes with age which also comes with fatigue. Like the game you played against Aussie a few months bakc, and the one against Wales and the more recent one against Samoa, you didnt finish the game strong. All of them you limped out the final 20-30 minutes, holding on by the skin of your teeth except against Aussie who overrun you which is exactly how it will lay out on Sunday
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Mel
08 Oct 2008

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Posted Wed 05 Oct 2011 01:15
Riddler,

The BOKs strenght is their defense.  It has been formidable.  They have won most of their games with some of the best defense in the World Cup.  If they play and 10 man game and their defense does not crack, they have every chance of winning.  

Blessings

Mel
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RiDdLeR
28 Apr 2010

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Posted Wed 05 Oct 2011 11:19
Yes, the boks do have very good defense but Australias defense is the equal of theirs. They didnt concede a try to Italy or Ireland who were the two main contenders in their group. They let a few in against the minnows but in all fairness, those tries were allowed when the game was done and dusted and the intensity was out of the contest. 

The way I see it for South Africa to win they need to played 80 minutes of rugby with their defense up for all 80 minutes of it. Their forwards need to play a full 80 minutes. They cant afford to fade out of the contest in the second half like they have in their last half dozen tier 1 games. They also need to play to their strengths. This is their scrum and set pieces and focus on field position. Morne Steyn need to be on target and they need to give him plenty of drop goal chances because you can bet every time he is 30-35 metres out from goal straight in front he will be drop goaling. They need to slow the game down as well and give their dinosaurs some rest. Create lots of stoppages and frustrate the Aussies.

For Australia to win they need to keep the ball in hand. They need to play the game at pace and run the springboks around the park. They need to keep probing away at the springbok backline and if they keep peppering away at them they will break down their defense. Fitness wise, the Australians are vastly better than the boks and they need to tire them out in the first 40 and wait for the gaps to appear in the second 40. They done this to perfection last time they met and need to execute the same way.

This game I expect to be close in the first 50-60 minutes with the Wallabies breaking away late. I dont think South Africa can run out a full intense 80 minutes as well as Australia and I can see them being the first team to crack and wilt under the extreme pressure this quarter final will have.
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Bokkie
30 Jun 2010

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Posted Wed 05 Oct 2011 20:33

RiDdLeR , your Bok bashing is getting tired and old now.  Let's see what happens in Sunday's game. 
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Bokkie
30 Jun 2010

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Posted Wed 05 Oct 2011 20:42

PS. RiDdLeR, do my eyes deceive me or do the Springboks have more World Cup points than your precious Wallabies?
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RiDdLeR
28 Apr 2010

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Posted Wed 05 Oct 2011 21:16
Another dumb azz bok blow in who thinks I am a wallaby supporter. How sad. Get a clue you bok fool
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Bish
26 Jun 2009

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Posted Thu 06 Oct 2011 07:26
Its heating up. The pressure cooker.

For South Africa it would be the earliest exit ever by a defending champion which will put some big heat on PDV. His reign has been fairly colourful. A brilliant 2008 season possibly on the back of a Jake White team, 2009 Lions Series victory and then some down results and unusual behavior to boot.
2011 saw them put a B side out with some humiliating results for the proud rugby nation, the heat has to be on!

For Australia it would be pretty disastrous. Back to Back quarter final exits and the employment of their 4 million dollar first ever foreign coach which in 4 years has racked up a terrible record for a great rugby side. Robbie has to be feeling it, but my question is, doe's he REALLY care? He's set for life thanks to the additional 2 year deal care of the ARU.

Who will be the most desperate???
This will be an absolutely epic battle.
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RiDdLeR
28 Apr 2010

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Posted Thu 06 Oct 2011 08:49
Actually Bish Robbie doesnt have a bad record with the Wallabies. Their NH form has improved under him. Their form in SA has improved under him. They won the tri nations under him. Only thing that hasnt is their record against New Zealand but he has done a lot with the Wallabies given what he started with. Have to give him some credit there.
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Bish
26 Jun 2009

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Posted Thu 06 Oct 2011 09:28
I agree he has done better against the Boks but I cant really agree with the Northern Hemisphere comment.

The Wallabies have lost their last 2 games (1 at home and 1 away) to the Poms. Against Ireland he's had 2 wins, 1 draw and a loss in the most critical in those 4 matches. Against Wales he has won 2 lost 1, only the Wallabies 2nd loss to Wales in the Pro era and against Scotland the side had their 1st loss in 21 years in the only outing they've played under Robbie.

Against the French they are 5 from 5 but this is a French side that in recent years has struggled against Argentina, been beaten by Italy and recently humiliated by Tonga.

Lets not mention Samoa

To me that represents a pretty bad record.
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ado tornado

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Posted Thu 06 Oct 2011 10:47
I've been in touch with the Department of Foreign Affairs in Canberra and they have agreed to grant Riddler a 5 day limited Australian citizenship. This citizenship expires at full time on Sunday.

Any other K1's who want jump onboard please feel free. Offer excludes all South Africans and other undesirables.
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RiDdLeR
28 Apr 2010

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Posted Thu 06 Oct 2011 10:52
Offer accepted Ado 

Aussie Aussie Aussie Oi Oi Oi 
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vismyr
19 Jul 2009

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Posted Thu 06 Oct 2011 12:05
Springbok team just announced:

1. Gurthro Steenkamp
2. John Smit (c)
3. Jannie du Plessis
4. Danie Rossouw
5. Victor Matfield
6. Heinrich Brüssow
7. Schalk Burger
8. Pierre Spies
9. Fourie du Preez
10. Morne Steyn
11. Bryan Habana
12. Jean de Villiers
13. Jaque Fourie
14. JP Pietersen
15. Pat Lambie

Replacements 
16. Bismarck du Plessis
17. CJ van der Linde
18. Willem Alberts
19. Francois Louw
20. Francois Hougaard
21. Butch James
22. Gio Aplon

As Riddler pointed out, Steyn was a tremendous loss for the Boks which is certainly going to effect their campaign, much the way the loss of Umaga greatly changed the All Blacks fortunes in 2003. This whole team feels like one designed to try and not lose games, as opposed to win them.

As an All Black supporter, I still rate the Boks as our greatest rival, so traditionally root for the Wallabies over them (nothing pleases me more than an 1. All Blacks, 2. Wallabies and 3. Boks finish in the Tri-Nations)...so I'd love to see the Aussies knock them over. The Boks have experienced losing a QF before, so they know the feeling well. 
That said, I just have a feeling that this game is going to come down to composure at the pointy end of the match. But for some reason, I'm just finding it hard to see how the Wallabies, if they aren't immediately able to cross the Boks line a couple times, aren't going to fall apart late in the game when the SA start to turn the screws. Like in the second All Blacks/Springboks fixture this year, when the Kiwis didn't convert their multiple opportunities...the Springboks choked the life out of them later in the game.

That said, if those passes stick, then the Wallabies could run away with this and I would giggle my guts out.

But truth is, I've always had my doubts about the mental toughness of Cooper and this Wallaby side, and I feel that was proven to a degree by their capitulation to Ireland and my gut tells me the Wallabies are done in this tournament. I hope to be proven wrong, but --

Springboks by 3.
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Chopper
26 Mar 2009

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Posted Thu 06 Oct 2011 12:07
Ha Ha Ha Aussie Ridds !
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RiDdLeR
28 Apr 2010

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Posted Thu 06 Oct 2011 13:22
Vis, I wouldnt read too much into the second Springbok/All Black game this year. You can read as much into that as the Springbok B performances in NZ and Aus. One thing noticeable in that game was the amount of times we broke the South African line. Only poor finishing let us down that night. How many final dropped passes were there? Something like 5 or 6 in the match. On the other side, the Springboks barely broke the All Black B line. 

You are entirely right about the bok side being a side designed to try and not lose games rather than win them. When on attack the ball barely ever makes it past #10. 

Only Springbok game you can accurately assess is the Springbok/Aussie one. Its the only game were the Springbok A side met another tri nation opponent with an A side. That night they lost at home. They failed to score a try and the Aussies sliced holes through their backline time and time again. Quite a few poor last passes saved South Africa losing that night by 20 or more. 

From my perspective the South Africans have been very ordinary this tournament. Nothing they have done so far looks great. They should have lost to Wales. They were smashed everywhere except the scoreboard and if the penalty the welsh scored but was disallowed was given they would have lost. They were very lucky against the Samoans as well. The Samoans were all over them in the second half and if they had a half decent kicker and a half decent ref officiating they could easily have won.

Sure, Aussie is not going great either, but one side has the potential to play a hell of a lot better and that is Australia. South Africa are playing the same rubbish they have for 2 years.

Watch their games, against Aussie, NZ B, Samoa and Wales. Watch how they ran out the final 20 or so minutes. You will see a side not powering to the finish but one scrambling and holding on for dear life. 
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vismyr
19 Jul 2009

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Posted Thu 06 Oct 2011 15:04
All valid points Ridds...and there's no argument from my end over any of them. However, the Springboks still came out on top in all those teams, while as soon as Australia were pressured...they crumbled. I've watched that match a few times and its not like Ireland were perfect -- they handed the Wallabies plenty of chances to take the game, but the Aussies just weren't good enough. And imho, I think its that lack of composure (or will to win?) which will prove the difference.

But again, am more than happy to be proven wrong:)

Go the All Blacks!
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