Real Madrid's Champions League draw is filled with danger... but nobody will want to face them in the last 16
Real Madrid's shaky start to the Champions League may be only a memory now, but it could yet have a bearing on their future in the continental competition.
September's calamitous 3-0 defeat away to Paris Saint-Germain raised serious questions about Los Blancos' credentials in Europe and also brought scrutiny over Zinedine Zidane's job.
At 2-0 down at half-time in their next game, at home to Club Brugge, the situation was even more bleak and even though Real came back to draw 2-2, progress to the last 16 was no guarantee at that point.
A hard-fought 1-0 win away to Galatasaray, which included a heroic display from goalkeeper Thibut Courtois, came next and brought calm. And it has been mostly plain sailing since.
After a 6-0 thrashing of the Turkish outfit at home, Zidane's side dominated but had to settle for a 2-2 draw with PSG at the Santiago Bernabeu and finished Group A with a 3-1 win away to Club Brugge on Wednesday night.
Even beating PSG would not have been enough to win the group as Los Blancos finished five points behind the Parisians and that means a difficult draw awaits the 13-time winners on Monday.
Madrid cannot meet PSG in the last 16 after sharing a group with the French champions, while they will also avoid the two Spanish sides that topped their respective groups: Barcelona and Valencia.
That leaves six possible rivals for Real: Bayern Munich, Juventus, Liverpool, Borussia Dortmund, Manchester City and RB Leipzig.
One of those stands out, of course, and already the conspiracy theorists are confidently predicting that Madrid will be paired with RB Leipzig in the last 16.
It would not be an easy tie, but the German side came out on top in a fairly even group in which all four teams were separated by just four points.
Madrid would be big favourites in a tie against Leipzig, but their other five possible rivals in the last 16 would present a tremendous test to their Champions League ambitions.
Bayern advanced to the knockout phase with six wins, a goal difference of +19 and the best group stage performance ever seen. Liverpool are the defending champions and are in imperious form in the Premier League.
City remain phenomenal and may end up focusing their energies on Europe after falling behind the Reds domestically. And Juventus, led by Real legend Cristiano Ronaldo, have lost only one game all season.
Zidane, en route to the three Champions League wins during his first spell as Madrid coach between 2016 and 2018, beat all of those teams: Bayern in the quarter-finals in 2016-17 and in the semis in 2017-18, Liverpool in the 2018 final, City in the 2016 semi-finals, Juventus in the 2017 final and in the last eight the following season.
Bayern's inconsistencies in the Bundesliga might make them the more attractive of the four, although their form in Europe has been impressive. But Liverpool are much stronger since Kiev, City's semi-final loss to Real predated Pep Guardiola and if Madrid meet Juventus, Ronaldo will be on the opposite team this time around.
"If we get Liverpool, we will knock them out," Zidane said with a smile after the 3-1 win in Brugge, which arrived thanks to goals from Rodrygo, Vinicius Junior and Luka Modric.
And he added, more seriously: "We can't do anything about the draw."
Under the Frenchman, Real finished second in their group in both 2016-17 and 2017-18, going on to win the Champions League both times, eliminating Napoli and PSG respectively in the last 16.
Leipzig aside, the draw presents serious difficulties for the 13-time winners. Zidane will not have wanted to play Bayern, Liverpool, City or Juventus so soon in the Champions League, yet that is the likelihood now.
On the flip side, though, Madrid have improved immeasurably since their early-season struggles.
Their midfield has been transformed by the emergence of Fede Valverde, their attack refreshed by the performances of 18-year-old Rodrygo (who scored a fantastic volley against Club Brugge), Courtois' confidence restored, Eden Hazard settling (and although injured, he will be back for the knockout rounds) and a collective improvement which has brought belief back again.
Since defeat to Mallorca in October, Zidane has been clear about what he wants and Real's recent form has been impressive. And against PSG, despite the draw, Zidane's side played their best football in a long, long time.
Los Blancos must now be considered genuine candidates to win the Champions League and in Monday's draw, no other side will want to be paired against them either.
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