Melbourne Cup tipping guide

Do you know more about Bart Simpson than Bart Cummings? Are you more interested in fashion than the fillies? Then this is the Melbourne Cup tipping guide for you.

WHAT’S IN A NAME?

Quite a bit, apparently.

Of the 153 Melbourne Cups, 86 have been won by horses with a one-word name and 62 by a horse with a two-word name.

While that’s great news for most of the field, it’s not a good omen for Who Shot Thebarman or Unchain my Heart. You may as well head to the pub now if you jagged one of them in the sweep; only five horses with a three-word name or more have won the Cup.

Plenty of people pick their horse on the name, specifically the first letter. In the history of the Cup horses starting with the letter T have had the most success with 18 wins. There's no horse in the field this year starting with T, so we move to the next successful letters, S, A and R which means good news for Signoff, Araldo, Au Revoir, Royal Diamond, Seismos, Sea Moo, Red Cadeaux and favorite Admire Rakti.

On the flip side, be sure to steer clear of Unchain my Heart; a horse starting with I, Q, U, X or Y has never won the race.

Vowels are also unpopular. While horses beginning with A have won ten times, horses starting with any other vowel have only won six times in total. Again, this rules out Unchain my Heart, Opinion, Admire Rakti, Araldo and Au Revoir

And if you want a really good omen, horses with a seven-letter name have been the most successful Cup history. So keep an eye on Fawkner, Seismos, Opinion and Signoff.

GIRLS JUST WANT TO HAVE FUN …

And boys just want to win Melbourne Cups. Male horses have won the Cup 137 times compared to 16 wins for female horses. That’s bad news for those with their money on Lights of Heaven.

FAVOURITE ALWAYS WINS?

Not necessarily in the Melbourne Cup. The Great Race seems to always throw up a surprise packet. Melbourne Cup favourites have won 32 times in 151 years. Makybe Diva (2005, 2004) was the last favourite to salute for the punters.

A BARRIER TO SUCCESS?

Racing experts will tell you the barrier draw can make or break a horse, and that’s certainly the case for Sea Moon this year who will jump from barrier 18, which has never housed a Melbourne Cup winner since barriers were introduced 90 years ago. There’s also bad news for Red Cadeaux (barrier 15), barrier 15 has only delivered a Cup winner once.

On the flip side, barriers 11 (Protectionist), 14 (Opinion), 10 (Lidari) and 5 (Unchain My Heart) have all been favourable to Cup winners.

And forget all that nonsense about 13 being unlucky for Who Shot Thebarman. Four winners have jumped from that barrier, most recently including Dunaden in 2011.

The most successful barriers have been 9 – 12 with four victories in the past 11 years.

FASHION FORWARD

While the punters don their finest black and white for a day of drinking, gambling and occasional race watching, a secondary colour of white (45 wins) and a primary colour of blue (18 wins) are the best for the jockeys. Admire Rakti, Cavalryman, Fawkner, Willing Foe and Sea Moon, are right in the mix.

AGE-OLD QUESTION

It’s a race for the young'uns, the Melbourne Cup.

Almost three-quarters of the 153 winners have been five-years-old or younger, which is bad news for all but four horses in this year’s field. Only Protectionist, Au Revoir, Signoff and Lucia Valentina are five-years or under.

Five-year-olds (43 wins) and four-year-olds (43 wins) have won the most Melbourne Cups.

In the past 11 years however six-year-olds have won five times most recently Dunaden (2011)

Only two eight-year-olds have won the Melbourne Cup.

IT’S A NUMBERS GAME

Forget about your own lucky numbers; number 4 (Red Cadeaux) and number 12 (Who Shot the Barmen) are the lucky ones when it comes to Melbourne Cups.

The omens are also good for Admire Rakti (No.1) and Junoob (No.8), while those with their money on Araldo, Sesmos, Brambles, Au Revoir and Unchain My Heart aren’t looking too good as numbers 21, 7, 16, 18 and 23 have only been successful twice each in 134 years.

And there’s bad news for those with money on Opinion – a horse wearing No.20 hasn’t won 115 years.

AND THE WINNER IS …

So, based on our extensive and incredibly thought-provoking research, the winning horse this year will be:
A five-year-old male with a one-word, seven-letter name starting with T, wearing either No.4 or No.12, starting from barrier 11, whose jockey is wearing blue-and-white coloured silks.

Unfortunately no such horse exists this year, but here are the ones that come closest:

1. ADMIRE RAKTI
2. JUNOOB
3. FAWKNER

And here are the horses to avoid:

1. OPINION
2. UNCHAIN MY HEART
3. WHO SHOT THE BARMEN