Can Black Heart Bart end Goodwood favourite drought?

Black Heart Bart will start the 2016 The Goodwood as favourite, but recent history indicates that the talented galloper will be up against it as he chases a maiden Group 1 victory.

Only three horses have won The Goodwood as favourites since the turn of the century and the very exclusive club includes equine superstar Black Caviar and the old marvel Takeover Target – arguably the best sprinters we have seen in Australia in modern times.

If you exclude Black Caviar and Takeover Target, the shortest priced winner of the race in the past decade was Velocitea at $6, while the likes of Perfectly Ready ($11), Let Go Thommo ($30), Shadoways ($30), Lone Rock ($31), Platelet ($10), Smokin’ Joey ($41) and Flamberge ($21) were all successful at very big odds.

Black Heart Bart was beaten as favourite in The Goodwood last year, but it is fair to say that he has gone to another level since joining the stable of Darren Weir and this might be his best ever chance to finally score an elusive Group 1 victory.

The Blackfriars gelding made his debut for Weir with a very close second behind The Quarterback in the Newmarket Handicap at Flemington on March 12 – his first race start since he finished second in the Cox Stakes over 2100 metres in Perth at the end of last year – and he returned to winning form with a gutsy win in the Victoria Handicap at Caulfield on March 26.

Another Group 1 placing followed with his second place finish behind English in the All Aged Stakes at Royal Randwick on April 16 and the form coming out of that race has already been strong as Malaguerra took out the BTC Cup at Doomben last Saturday.

Black Heart Bart gets into The Goodwood very well at the weights under the set weights plus penalties conditions of the race and it is only the poor record of favourites in The Goodwood that might suggest he isn’t the horse to beat.

The main danger to Black Heart Bart could be his Newmarket Handicap conqueror The Quarterback, who is currently available at $9 in the 2016 2016 The Goodwood betting.

The Quarterback always needs some luck in running to salute and he was beaten as a short-priced favourite in the VOBIS Gold Sprint at Caulfield on April 16, but The Goodwood is often run at a brutal early tempo and if that is the case on Saturday, it will give the backmarkers like The Quarterback and Under The Louvre the chance to be involved in the finish.

The Goodwood x-factor is Supido, who comes from the extremely in-form stable of Mick Kent.

Supido has recorded six wins from his past six race starts and he has produced a number of high-rating performances to boot, but this is easily the toughest test of his racing career to date.

Kent has already captured a Group 1 during the Adelaide Autumn Racing Carnival with the still undefeated Abbey Marie in the Australasian Oaks and he has always been of the belief that the Sebring entire is up to Group 1 quality.

The recent history of the race suggests that we look further down the market in order to find the winner and the value runner could be Fast ‘N’ Rocking.

Fast ‘N’ Rocking is another horse that will be suited by the early speed that is expected in The Goodwood and he is a sprinter that is more than capable of producing blistering late sectionals on his day.