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History Says - 2016 Golden Slipper

Just three of this year’s field of 16 plus one emergency for the $3.5 million Group 1 are trained south of the Murray river, but among them are the two Mick Price-trained colts that dominate the market.

Extreme Choice is the $3 favourite with Flying Artie the $5 second elect.

The Vics have not dominated a Slipper market to that degree since 2004, when Alinghi started the $1.70 favourite but could manage only third placing behind Dance Hero.

The only favourite Victoria has had since was another from the Price camp, filly Samaready, who also ran third - at $2.80 - in 2012.

Samaready is one of just eight single-figure odds starters that Victoria has had post-Alinghi and the two next shortest-priced, fillies Crystal Lily ($6 in 2010) and Miss Finland ($6.50 in 2006), both won.

Churchill Downs ran third behind stablemate Miss Finland at $7.50, Press The Button was 10th at $8 the following year, Sugar Babe finished sixth at $9 in 2008, while Reward For Effort ($9.50) and Rostova ($9) filled seventh and 11th spots respectively in 2009.

The shortest-priced colts Victoria has had since 2009 both started at $19 - Cornrow, who finished second-last in 2014, and last year’s fourth placegetter Ready For Victory - and you have to go back to 2002, when Bel Esprit ran fifth at $4.60, for the most recent Victorian male to start favourite.

A Melbourne-trained male youngster has not won the Slipper since Flying Spur scored at 25-1 in 1995.

Dominating the market on Saturday’s event augurs well for the Price pair’s chances with nine of the past 12 Slipper winners having started $6.50 or shorter, including the past six.

They are the only two runners under $6.50 this year with Capitalist holding down the $8.50 third line.

Single-digit barriers have also produced nine of the past 12 winners. Extreme Choice drew seven, but will start from six if emergency Moqueen does not start, with Flying Artie likely to jump from gate four.

Barrier one, which will be occupied by Quick Feet, is clearly the most successful Slipper starting position in recent times, having produced seven winners since 1995.

While double-digit gates haven’t been to the fore of late, barrier 11 is the second-most successful starting position in the same time with four winners. Star Turn drew gate 11, but Telperion will move into there if Moqueen does not run.

The Price pair head into the Slipper off the Blue Diamond Stakes, a race that features in the lead-up form of eight of the past 30 Slipper winners.

It has been 27 years, however, since Courtza became the latest to go straight from the Diamond to the Slipper, while Flying Spur - who went to the Slipper out of the VRC Sires’ Produce Stakes - is the most recent to win without having previously started in Sydney.

Extreme Choice won at Randwick on debut, whereas Flying Artie will be having his first start right-handed on Saturday.

The Reisling Stakes has proven the most successful final Slipper lead-in, having produced eight of the past 30 winners, while seven have rounded out preparations in the Todman Stakes.

French Fern will be out to become the seventh filly to complete the Reisling Slipper double, to be joined in Saturday’s race by Reisling beaten brigade Moqueen, Quick Feet and Honesty Prevails, while Kiss And Make Up will become the sixth to do to the Todman/Slipper double if he wins on Saturday.

Capitalist is the only other runner from the Todman Stakes running on Saturday.

Astern and Good Standing go in off wins in traditional lead-ups, the Silver Slipper and Skyline Stakes, but both were first-up in those events and Form Focus data reveals that none of the past 30 Slipper winners have done so at the second run of their campaign.

Twenty-two of the past 30 have been won by horses at least three runs into their preparation, although three of the past four winners were third-up.

Those three - Pierro, Overreach and Vancouver - were all having their fourth career start, a profile shared by six of the past 11 winners.

History Says verdict: It’s a race between the Price pair, who are the only two runners under $6.50, have both drawn single-digit gates and are having their fourth start. Extreme Choice gets the nod given his experience the Sydney way of racing.

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