Melbourne Cup preview - why your runner can't win

The most coveted prize in Australian horse racing the Group One Melbourne Cup over the 3200 metres.

James Lamb has gone through each runner and gives you the balanced approached of "why your runner can win" and "why your runner can't win" the 2015 Melbourne Cup.

Trained by Sir Michael Stoute, this five-year-old stallion was no match for the placegetters in the Caulfield Cup but he arguably should have finished closer after being held-up at the top of the straight. Likes to race handy to the speed.

Why he can win: He defeated former top stayer Brown Panther over 2816m at G2 level in May this year and boasts a 2L victory over Hartnell over 2310m. He might not have savaged the line in the Caulfield Cup but he worked home solidly and should be better for the experience.

Why he can't win: Any rain would significantly hinder his chances (despite the fact he won his only start on heavy by a huge space back in 2013). He has 58kg to contend with which is no easy feat considering Makybe Diva (2005) is the only runner in the last 35 years to carry that much weight to victory. World-class jockey Ryan Moore will have to bring his A-game from barrier 16.

Finished second, albeit a distant second, in the Cox Plate (2040m) last start. Was no match at all for Europe's best 2000m horses but he's a weight-for-age star in Australia. Winner at 2400m but never been beyond that distance.

Why he can win: Racing in outstanding form despite a hectic 2015 schedule which included one run in Hong Kong and two in the United Kingdom. Capable in all conditions and is a versatile in terms of his racing pattern. Smashed a good field in the G1 Queen Elizabeth Stakes (2000m) in April this year. Drawn nicely in barrier 4 for Michael Walker.

Why he can't win: Has plenty of weight (57.5kg) for a horse that is unproven beyond 2400m. Breeding doesn't suggest he'll run a strong two miles but the stable are confident the tempo of the Cup will suit him.

Six-year-old stallion aiming to become the second Japanese horse to win the Melbourne Cup after Delta Blues in 2006. He finished sixth in the Caulfield Cup but came from near-last at the top of the straight.

Why he can win: His Caulfield Cup run was a great trial for this and it's fair to say jockey Zac Purton didn't exactly give him a gut-buster. The quiet ride was questioned but no sanctions were imposed. His last run over this distance was a second behind world-class stayer Gold Ship in the G1 Tenno Sho in May this year. Two miles holds no fears whatsoever.

Why he can't win: Needs it dry to produce his best so connections will be praying the rain stays away. He generally requires a slice of luck because of his racing pattern and in a 24-horse field he could get stuck behind some slow horses, even around the spacious Flemington circuit.

German import in the care of the Freedman brothers. Kicked off his Cup campaign with a solid effort over 2000m at Caulfield before finishing second in the G3 Bart Cummings (2520m) under the impost of 60kg. He was no match for the quinella pair in the Caulfield Cup (2400m) but his performance was full of merit.

Why he can win: He was a G1 winner in Germany over 2400m and he certainly wasn't disgraced over the same distance in the highly-prestigious Japan Cup against some of the world's best stayers. A solid showing in the Caulfield Cup is always a terrific guide for this race and there should be further improvement to come with the added fitness. Freedman has a remarkable record in this race (19:5-3-0).

Why he can't win: Never ventured beyond 2520m. He was good in the Caulfield Cup but Trip To Paris was better and is proven over this distance.

Lightly-raced UK stayer who has won five of his 13 career starts. Was victorious in the G2 Goodwood Cup (3219m) two runs back before finishing some 14L off the winner in the Lonsdale Cup (3300m) last start.

Why he can win: Defeated Caulfield Cup runner-up Trip To Paris in the Goowood Cup over this distance. Will appreciate firm ground and although he hasn't raced since August 21 he should still have a strong fitness base having raced at 2400m+ five times this year.

Why he can't win: Hopeless in the G2 Lonsdale Cup (3200m) last start (which was later attributed to the soft conditions). No disrespect to his trainer Michael Bell but this will be his first Cup runner and many highly-rated international horsemen have tried and failed at their first (and 2nd, 3rd, 4th...) Australian assault. No lead-up run here before the Cup is also a red flag.

Godolphin import who has now had two full preparations in Australia, including a highly-successful autumn campaign in Sydney. His form this spring hasn't been as impressive but his Cox Plate run was somewhat encouraging despite being beaten 10.25L.

Why he can win: His form during the autumn was superb, highlighted by a 1.3L victory over top-class Japanese galloper To The World in the G1 BMW (2400m). He was ridden upside down in the Sydney Cup over this trip so his 6.8L fourth isn't a true reflection of his staying ability. Although beaten comprehensively in the Cox Plate, he was clearly doing his best work late and raced like a horse desperately looking for further. Shades of Green Moon circa 2012.

Why he can't win: Doesn't appear to be going as well as he was in Sydney earlier this year. Yes he was ridden poorly at his first go at two miles in the Sydney Cup but to be beaten home by Like A Carousel isn't a great endorsement. He was good in the Turnbull Stakes but Preferment was better.

The forgotten runner when it comes to the Japanese horses. He was only 1.5L off Fame Game in the G1 Tenno Sho (3200m) back in May but is almost five times the price for the Cup. He covered a bit of additional ground from a wide alley in the Caulfield Cup and was just one-paced in the straight.

Why he can win: His 3200m form is terrific. He finished third (beaten 0.3L) behind the high-class Fenomeno in the 2014 Tenno Sho (3200m) and was only 1.8L off in this year's event. Although his Caulfield Cup run wasn't overly eye-catching it's always advantageous for the international runners to have at least one race in Australia prior to the Cup.

Why he can't win: His last win was way back in October 2013 and he has only managed one placing from his last six starts. On face value there were plenty of stronger Cup trials in the Caulfield Cup than his. Eight-year-old gallopers don't win this race.

Trained by the man who prepared 2013 Cup 4th-placegetter Simenon, this six-year-old gelding is coming off a dominant 4.5L victory in the G2 Lonsdale Cup (3300m) in August. He also managed a 2nd-placing to Quest For More in the Northumberland Plate over this trip in June,

Why he can win: He recorded an effortless victory over a similar trip last start, with fellow Cup rival Trip To Paris 11.5L away. He'll be strong at the end of two miles and his lack of recent racing isn't a huge concern given the amount of racing he has had this year, including five runs over hurdles. Mullins had some success here with Simenon and there are plenty of similarities between the two gallopers.

Why he can't win: Jumpers don't win the Melbourne Cup. His three wins have come on rain-affected ground and if the rain stays away it's doubtful that he'll relish the firm Flemington surface. Frankie Dettori is a world-class jockey but his record in this race is poor (13:0-1-0).

Four times Big Red has contested the Cup and three times he has found just one stronger in the run to the post. He deserves a win in this race having finished runner-up in 2011, 2013 and 2014 but age is catching up with him.

Why he can win: He seems to grow another leg in Australia and in particular here at Flemington. Despite some average overseas form in the lead-up to last year's race he still managed to beat all-bar Protectionist. He ran a superb race when second to Criterion in the G1 Queen Elizabeth Stakes (2000m) at Randwick in April this year.

Why he can't: He's 10. No horse has ever won the Melbourne Cup at his age and he's not getting any better. It's very hard to get excited about anything he's done in three runs since racing here in the autumn (but that doesn't seem to matter with this galloper).

Stablemate of Cup stalwart Red Cadeaux, this galloper stormed into calculations with a fast-finishing second to Mongolian Khan in the Caulfield Cup (2400m). He is much better suited out to two miles.

Why he can win: His Caulfield Cup run was outstanding, clocking the quickest final 400m (23.03) and the best last 200m (11.62). His form this year has been incredibly consistent with the exception of his 11.5L 5th in the G2 Lonsdale Cup (3300m) at York in August. The distance rise is ideal and firm ground isn't an issue.

Why he can't win: He was a $31 chance in the Caulfield Cup and ran out of his skin; can he repeat that effort or was it a flash in the pan? His previous UK form was solid but he looked far more dour than the horse we saw in the Caulfield Cup.

Waller-trained former kiwi who finished 3rd in this race last year. He hasn't managed a placing in four outings this preparation but all runs have been most encouraging from a Cup perspective.

Why he can win: His form over two miles is terrific and he loves Flemington (4:2-0-1). He doesn't handle Caulfield at all well so don't read too much into his last-start 7th - he still hit the line nicely from well back. Shinn shouldn't have any issues finding early midfield cover from barrier 6.

Why he can't win: He hasn't won a race since last year's G3 Bart Cummings (2520m) at Flemington. His form this time around is sound but he probably isn't going any better than he was this time last year and you could argue that there is more depth to this race.

Godolphin galloper based in the UK and trained by Saeed bin Suroor at Newmarket. He has won six of his 11 career starts and finished 3rd in the G1 French Derby (2100m) at Chantilly back in 2013.

Why he can win: Travel doesn't seem to faze him having won in France, England and Dubai. Two runs back he won the G2 City Of Gold (2410m) at Meydan by nearly 2L after winning a G3 at Newbury by 9L. He should settle in a forward position without burning too much petrol from barrier 7.

Why he can't win: The furthest he's been is 2650m and he beat just one runner home on that occasion. He had to undergo a vet examination on a bruised heel before being cleared to run in this race - always a bit of a red flag, particularly with the international runners. Only the two runs this years which is hardly the ideal Cup preparation.

Waterhouse-trained gelding who has bounced back from a disappointing 2014 spring carnival to win two of his five starts this preparation. Took out the G3 Bendigo Cup (2400m) last start and is a winner over this distance.

Why he can win: Has recaptured something close to his best form with victories over 1600m and 2400m this preparation. He won the 2014 Sydney Cup over this trip by 3.8L and has the services of Cup-winning hoop Damien Oliver.

Why he can't win: He's racing in solid form but it's a big jump from the Bendigo Cup against the likes of Divan and Kirramosa to a race littered with international talent. His chances would obviously increase If the heavens open and the track is downgraded to a genuine soft.

Former UK galloper who joined the all-conquering Waller yard in mid-2013. His form beyond 2600m is very good having won a 2800m handicap on Cup day last year before storming to victory in the Sydney Cup (3200m) in April.

Why he can win: He came with a withering burst to nose out stablemate Who Shot Thebarman in this year's Sydney Cup over two miles. His only previous run here resulted in victory and he has the Waller polish.

Why he can't win: Hasn't done enough in four runs this campaign to warrant serious consideration. He was okay in the Caulfield Cup but others were better. The Sydney Cup hasn't traditionally been a great guide.

The number one seed for the Waller stable. He won last year's G1 Victoria Derby (2500m) and has been in terrific form this campaign with back-to-back victories in the G2 Hill Stakes (2000m) and G1 Turnbull Stakes (2000m).

Why he can win: This is his first go at 3200m but the Zabeel galloper is an out-and-out stayer who shouldn't have any issues with the distance rise. He has won both of his starts here at Flemington including a barnstorming victory in the G1 Turnbull Stakes (2000m). You can rule a line through his Cox Plate run given it was near-impossible for anything back in the field to make ground out wide.

Why he can't win: The Victoria Derby has not been a great reference for this race in recent times and nor has the ATC Derby (a race he finished a disappointing 8th in earlier this year). His Turnbull win was good but the horse he defeated in Royal Descent has been beaten a combined total of 34L at her next two starts (with excuses in the Caulfield Cup).

Charlton-trained galloper who finished ahead of Caulfield-Cup runner-up Trip To Paris over this distance two runs back before a disappointing effort in the Geelong Cup at his Australian debut.

Why he can win: On his UK form he has to be considered if you rate Trip To Paris a genuine chance. The two finished alongside each other in the G2 Goodwood Cup (3219m) in July following on from Quest For More's win in the Northumberland Plate (3219m).

Why he can't win: He did cover additional ground in the Geelong Cup (2400m) last start but he was still mighty disappointing, beating just one runner home. Impossible to see him turning the tables on Almoonqith based on that showing and barrier 21 certainly hasn't made his task any easier.

An American-bred import that joined the Hayes and Dabernig stable in August this year. He will be having his sixth Australian run when he lines up in the Cup, coming off an impressive 1.75L victory in the Geelong Cup (2400m).

Why he can win: He couldn't have been more impressive winning the Geelong Cup (2400m) last start and that event has been a solid launching pad to this race in modern times. His run in the G1 Metropolitan (2400m) was much better than it looks on paper given he was back and wide and forced to sustain a long run. Fitness certainly no issue.

Why he can't win: He won over 2800m at G3 level in Meydan but failed over two miles at his next start in the G2 Dubai Gold Cup. Although visually impressive in the Geelong Cup there was nothing outstanding about the time and the race dropped away pretty quickly in terms of quality. Any rain would hurt his chances.

O'Brien-trained son of Galileo with three wins from 15 career starts. He has been beaten 16L and 43L at his last two starts.

Why he can win: Distance no issue having finished 2nd to Trip To Paris in the G1 Gold Cup (4023m) three runs back after winning over 2816m at Leopardstown. Boasts a 2.5L second to the highly-rated Australia over 2400m in the G1 Irish Derby back in June last year.

Why he can't win: Beaten out of sight at his last couple of starts. No lead-up runs in Australia is far from ideal for a horse with recent form as patchy as his. Didn't travel to Australia as well as connections would've liked.

Local stayer under the care of leading trainer Darren Weir. Led and was just claimed late by The United States in the G2 Moonee Valley Cup (2500m) on Cox Plate day.

Why he can win: His form this campaign has been solid with the exception of an ordinary display in the G2 Herbert Power (2400m) at Caulfield. He led last start and will be able to adopt similar tactics here after drawing the inside alley. The rail was an absolute fast lane on Derby day.

Why he can't win: Outclassed. He always tries hard this horse and his record here is solid (6:1-3-0) but two miles will test him in this company.

Lightly-raced stayer from the Aidan O'Brien yard. He is yet to finish outside of the top-two in five career runs, all at 2400m+. Has demonstrated that he handles all types of ground and is bred to run two miles.

Why he can win: He's a valuable stallion with only five runs under his belt so connections wouldn't run the risk of entering him if they didn't see him as a genuine chance. He defeated highly-rated stablemate Order Of St George over 2816m in the Curragh Cup before that horse went on to record a hat-trick of wins - the latest at G1level by some 11L.

Why he can't win: He made his racing debut in May this year and comes up against a field of seasoned stayers here. He has raced in fields of 7, 7, 6 and 7 at his last four starts which doesn't exactly hold him in good stead for this. The Cup has been dominated by five and six-year-old horses in recent times.

Geelong-based galloper coming off a 9th-placing in his local Cup. His best finish this preparation was a 2.85L 10th in the G1 Memsie Stakes (1400m) when resuming.

Why he can win: He is by Galileo... that's all I've got.

Why he can't win: His one run over this distance was a 5.3L 3rd in the 2014 Sydney Cup and he has lost a length or two since then. Didn't do enough in the Geelong Cup last start after just a plain effort in the G2 Herbert Power (2400m).

Has come through the Cup backdoor with the scratching of stablemate Amralah. Another son of Galileo who has finished top-two in four of his five starts this preparation including a stylish victory in the G2 Moonee Valley Cup (2500m) last start.

Why he can win: He was aided by a lovely Hugh Bowman ride but he still rattled off some really slick closing sectionals to score last start. He has drawn nicely for world-class jockey Joao Moreira and will carry just 52.5kg. Team Williams always have to be respected in this race.

Why he can't win: He has been racing in strong form this preparation but he rises to another level here and steps beyond 2500m for the first time. Racing against the likes of Prince of Penzance, Escado, Magnapal and Genuine Lad isn't the ideal Melbourne Cup form.

Gai Waterhouse-trained galloper who booked his ticket into this race with victory in the G3 Lexus Stakes (2500m) on Derby Day. By the same sire (the late Monsun) as last year's Cup winner Protectionist.

Why he can win: His form this preparation has been sound and he certainly appreciated getting onto a bigger track here last start. He gets in with just 51kg after carrying at least 56.5kg at his five runs this preparation. Rock-hard fit.

Why he can't win: Barrier 24 is no luxury. The Lexus hasn't been a great form reference with only one winner (Shocking 2009) since Brew in 2000. This will be his first time beyond 2500m in Australia. He did have one run in Europe over a similar trip but finished 22L off the winner in the G1 St Leger (2900m) at Doncaster.

A brilliant winner of the G1 ATC Oaks (2400m) in April, this Sargent-trained galloper is the lone mare in the field. Her 4th-placing in the Cauilfield Cup (2400m) last start was her best performance this preparation.

Why she can win: Her Oaks win was outstanding and the horse who finished 2nd in that race (Winx) has gone on to do a few nice things since. She hasn't enjoyed a lot of luck this preparation but has been hitting the line in encouraging fashion. Fourth in a Caulfield Cup (2400m) is a nice lead-up to this.

Why she can't win: History is well and truly against her with Light Fingers the last horse to achieve the ATC Oaks - Melbourne Cup double way back in 1965. This race has been dominated by males since Makybe Diva's treble and this will be her first try beyond 2400m. Her pedigree doesn't suggest she'll run a strong 3200m and she'll be spotting her rivals a start from barrier 19.