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Weekend Best - Derby Day

Weekend Best

BRAD BISHOP:

Best: Race 9 No. 6 - Delectation - Chautauqua’s demolition job of last week’s Manikato Stakes didn’t do any harm to how this fella’s form reads and it was hard not to be impressed with what we saw from him in a strong Flemington jumpout last Friday. Draw (three) might be tricky, but if there’s one jockey who can overcame that it’s the white-hot Hugh Bowman.

Next Best: Race 8 No. 1 - Royal Descent - Can’t resist the odds on offer about the nation’s most consistent mare, who is back to mares-only grade for the first time in 18 months. She’s had 16 starts in that time and while she’s only won once, she’s finished second on seven occasions, five of them at Group 1 level. Granted, there’s a question mark around how she’s come through the Caulfield Cup flop, but Chris Waller wouldn’t risk her if he didn’t think she was right. Drawn wide and will be ridden by, guess who, Mr Bowman.

Best Roughie: Race 7 No. 1 - Lizard Island - Feel a bit dirty labelling this bloke a ‘roughie’ given I reckon he should be a clear-cut second favourite behind Tarzino. Highest-rated horse in the race and that’s on the back of super recent efforts, in the Caulfield Guineas and Caulfield Classic and the winners of both of those events are not running this week. Must be some doubt at 2500m, being by Sebring, but from barrier three he will get a much cushier run than last start and, at $13, is outstanding each-way value.

AAMI Victoria Derby: 1-7-3-14 - See above re Lizard Island. Can’t stress the level of respect I have for Tarzino, but still have nightmares of tumbling into the Derby hot-pot last year. Petrified of the Kiwi-sounding Sandgroper, Kia Ora Koutou, while Colonel Custer was a complete forgive at Geelong and is the best at monster odds.

SHANE ANDERSON:

Best: Race 1 No. 5 - Montauk - Has won two of six starts but has been luckless on a couple of other occasions. Loved his win at Randwick over the mile last start and the form around that race looks quite solid. Trained by Waller and ridden by Bowman. That’s enough for me.

Next Best: Race 3 No. 3 - Disposition - A win over the course and distance has been followed up by two runner-up finishes at Group 1 level in his three starts for the campaign, which reads exceptionally well for this race. Don’t mind him being drawn out a little here as that will allow Damien Oliver to give him galloping room and allow him to roll into the race.

Roughie: Race 2 No. 12 - C’Est Beau La Vie - Bred to relish distances of 2000m and further and I like the way that she finished off her race when fourth in the Hill Smith Stakes over 1800m at Morphettville last start. Craig Williams rides and she has drawn well. Hall of Fame trainer Leon Macdonald knows how to win a big race during the Spring Carnival.

Coolmore Stud Stakes: 1-11-4-5 - Exosphere looks a class above his rivals in the 3YO sprint division and should win. Hellbent gets the services of Dwayne Dunn and is very promising. Keen Array, Japonisme, Counterattack, Sebring Sun and Mogador all go in the exotics.

Longines Mackinnon Stakes: 5-9-10-4 - This race is giving me a nose bleed, it is wide open. Contributer has had a forgetful spring thus far but gets his chance to salvage something. He has drawn nicely and should be able to settle midfield or forward of that. Stablemate Magic Hurricane has been flying, he is right in the mix. Ecuador finished runner up to Winx last start, looks the leader and can run a race at odds. Pornichet gets a nice draw and he goes in everything ahead of Fawkner, Happy Trails and Stratum Star. I will be going wide in the opening leg of the quaddie.

AAMI Victoria Derby: 3-7-1-15 - Happy to have something on the unbeaten WA galloper Kia Ora Koutou. He was too good for older rivals last start over 2200m at Belmont. Most will say that was only a BM72+ race but, when we don’t know the true worth of much of the 3YO staying form, I think that just may be a more reliable assessment than a few inflated own age Stakes races. He is bred to eat every step of the 2500m journey, being by 1999 Victoria Derby winner Blackfriars out of a mare by Melbourne Cup winner Jeune. Tarzino has been racing well and looks likely to relish the distance, I just think he is very short for a horse that has only won a 1400m maiden and 1600m handicap. Lizard Island is terrific, he has been so honest with runner-up finishes in the Caulfield Guineas and Caulfield Classic. Red Alto gives the impression he will run the distance and wasn’t far behind Tarzino when they clashed at Ballarat, actually starting favourite that day.

Myer Classic: 9-1-13-3 - Abidewithme won impressively first-up over Oaks winner Set Square and has run well in open-class Group 1 handicaps at her next two. With Oliver aboard, she can settle closer to the speed from the inside barrier and gets her chance to win. Royal Descent is the best horse in the race, if she hasn’t been bottomed out by her tough run in the Caulfield Cup then she is clearly the horse to beat. Slightly Sweet was good in the Tristarc Stakes last start and is proven at the mile. May’s Dream has been ticking over beautifully. I’m a huge fan of outstanding three-year-old filly Stay With Me but will risk her against the older mares from the wide draw.

BEN ASGARI:

Best: Race 7 No. 7 - AAMI Victoria Derby - Tarzino - His effort to finish third in last week’s Moonee Valley Vase was phenomenal considering the track pattern of the day. He looks as though he should relish the step-up in distance based on the way he ran through the line and his previous start in the Caulfield Guineas was arguably just as impressive without luck. I don’t think the opposition are capable of matching his level and he only needs to handle the quick back-up to win.

Next Best: Race 1 No. 3 - Carbine Club Stakes - Bassett - He faced a huge task jumping from 1100 to 1600m second-up in the Caulfield Guineas but still did a great job to finish sixth. He actually loomed up at the top of the straight before his fitness understandably gave out and with that run under his belt he should arguably be ready to peak now third-up in what is a significant drop in class.

Roughie: Race 6 No. 2 - Mackinnon Stakes (2000m) - Happy Trails - Six of the past seven Mackinnon Stakes winners have come through the Cox Plate and I think it can provide the winner again in 2015. Simply put the pen through Happy Trails’ Cox Plate run considering the way the track was playing, he’s a two-time Group 1 winner over the track and distance and is proven on the post-Cox Plate back-up having won the Emirates Stakes in 2012 and this race 12 months ago.

AAMI Victoria Derby: 7-8-1-2 - See above.

SAM DORAN:

Best: Flemington Myer Classic Race 8 No. 15 - Stay With Me - When it comes to training and placing horses, David Hayes and Tom Dabernig know what they are doing. Stay With Me has clearly got the Lindsay Park stable excited and the signs are she will be able to cope with the pressure of tackling the older horses in the Myer. The daughter of Street Cry worked beautifully on Tuesday and she could become one of the stories of the Spring Carnival with a victory on Saturday.

Next Best: Flemington Longines Mackinnon Stakes Race 6 No. 2 - Happy Trails - Was never a factor in the Cox Plate last week and there have been excuses for a number of his runs this campaign. He backed up last year to win the Mackinnon after running sixth in the Cox Plate and as a $9.00 chance in CrownBet markets he represents great each-way value.

Roughie: AAMI Victoria Derby Flemington Race 7 No. 15 - Red Alto - Although beaten by more than four lengths in the Moonee Valley Vase last Saturday, Red Alto picked up in the straight and was doing his best work on the line. He is not the worst 100/1 chance you can have a sheckle on and the addition of Opie Bosson can only be a bonus as he is in career-best form.

Coolmore Stud Stakes: 1-11-10-2 - Exosphere is a beast and the only thing that beats him is him. We are only likely to see the colt race three or four more times so if you are on track try get a peek at him. If any horse could cause an upset or at least run into the money it is Hellbent, who was probably the gallop of the morning on Tuesday and at $17 will give you a good sight.

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Racing.com - Where Racing Lives
Click on the image to view the current Group One winners of the 2015 Spring Carnival.
Click on the image to view the current Group One winners of the 2015 Spring Carnival.