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2015 Caulfield Cup preview: Sky's the limit for UK stayer

A capacity field of 18 runners will face the starter in this year's $3 million Caulfield Cup (2400m) to be run at 5:40pm (AEST).

Godolphin gallopers Complacent and Metropolitan Handicap winner Magic Hurricane look set to miss out but the quality of the overseas runners is undeniable.

Japanese runners Fame Game and Hokko Brave, plus the Stoute-trained Snow Sky, all boast handicap ratings of 110+.

Standing in the way of the international invasion are mares Rising Romance and Set Square, as well as last year's ATC Derby (2400m) winner Mongolian Khan.

As is generally the case with this race, there looks to be raft of genuine chances and luck in running will no doubt play a crucial part.

The forecast for Friday/Saturday is for mainly fine weather so the track should be a Good 3 for the running of the feature race.

The rail comes out 6m after being in the true position for Guineas day.

Speed Map & Tempo

Speed Map for the 2015 Caulfield Cup
Speed Map for the 2015 Caulfield Cup

No real noted leader here from the local brigade so there could be a few jockeys exchanging glances in the early part to see who wants to push towards the front. Mongolian Khan will probably head forward to settle in the first four or five but Magicool and Magnapal could cross from out wider. Snow Sky and Rising Romance should find nice forward positions from barriers 3 and 2 respectively and the former could even land in front by default. Expect Fame Game to settle in the second half of the field initially but he could boot up along the inside rail. Can't see this being run at a breakneck tempo.

Analysis

THE MAIN HOPES

Snow Sky ticks plenty of boxes and anything over $10 looks pretty decent value. He needs good/firm ground to show his best so don't take any notice of his recent flop on soft going in the G1 King George VI Stakes (2414m). Prior to that he demolished a quality field in the G2 Hardwicke Stakes (2414m) at Ascot after racing up on the speed. He should land in the first four or five here from barrier 3 and the pace doesn't look overly strong so Oliver will have time to assess the situation. Unlike the other UK runners that have come over, this horse's best form is around this distance range and he looks to have a few more gears than the dour types we've seen contest this race in the past.

Mongolian Khan put in an outstanding Caulfield Cup trial with a fast-finishing 3rd in the G1 Caulfield Stakes (2000m) last Saturday. He has finished within 2L of the winner at all three runs since resuming and looks primed for this race 4th-up. His form at 2400m is faultless, winning the New Zealand Derby by 1.8L before repeating the dose in the ATC Derby at Randwick during the autumn. The barrier means he should enjoy a lovely run just off the speed, provided he steps cleanly for kiwi jockey Opie Bosson (4 from 8 on the horse). The $5 being offered in early markets looks short enough in this field but the Baker-trained entire looks pretty bombproof.

Prefer him for the Melbourne Cup but Fame Game can certainly run a bold race here with last year's Caulfield Cup-winning hoop Zac Purton in the saddle. Fame Game fits a very similar profile to Admire Rakti and actually comes here with better form than that galloper. He is coming off arguably a career-best run when 2nd in the G1 Tenno Sho (3200m) back in May this year - the race that last year's winner finished 13th in prior to coming over. Four starts ago he recorded a dominant 2.5L victory over 2500m at G2 level, going the Melbourne way (anti-clockwise). From all reports he has settled in beautifully at the Werribee quarantine centre.

Rising Romance finished 2nd in this race in 2014 with 53kg after jumping from barrier 14 and she carries the same weight this year from a much better barrier. Her run in the Makybe Diva Stakes (1600m) two runs back was terrific but Fawkner didn't exactly frank the form last start. The Lindsay Park mare was caught wide in the Turnbull Stakes (2000m) last start and raced flat in the straight but that was the first time in six starts that she has finished more than 1.65L from the winner. She has drawn to enjoy a nice run up on the pace here and her form at 2400m is hard to fault (3:1-2-0). The Hayes/Dabernig stable are on fire at the moment.

The barrier draw hasn't been kind to him but Our Ivanhowe has the right international form around this distance to be highly-competitive here. He was a dominant winner of the G1 Von Bayern (2400m) at Munich in November last year before finishing a respectable 6th in the G1 Japan Cup (2400m) against the likes of superstar stayers Epiphaneia, Just A Way and Gentildonna. He has improved at each run for the Freedman stable and should be very close to his peak after a solid 2nd carrying 60kg (6kg more than the winner) in the G3 Bart Cummings (2520m) at Flemington.

Gust Of Wind has no weight (51kg) and her only run over this trip was a 2.5L victory in the G1 ATC Oaks in the autumn. Winx finished 2nd in that race and has gone on to become one of the most exciting mares in the country. Gust Of Wind hasn't placed since her Oaks success but her Makybe Diva Stakes run was full of merit and she was luckless in the Turnbull last start. The perceived lack of pace in this race is a concern given that she'll settle in the second half of the field from barrier 13 but she does possess a withering turn-of-foot when afforded clear passage.


MINOR HOPES

Hokko Brave has only been to the races twice in 2015 but both times he has acquitted himself well, placing 2nd at G2 level over 2500m before finishing on the heels of the placegetters in the G1 Tenno Sho (3200m). His last victory was over the Caulfield Cup distance in the Melbourne direction but it came way back in October 2013. He'll need luck from the wide alley.

Set Square was an impressive winner of the G1 Crown Oaks (2500m) last spring but there is a query over the strength of that race from a Caulfield Cup perspective. She hit the line hard for 3rd in the Turnbull Stakes last start and drops from 54.5kg to just 51kg. It will be interesting to see what McEvoy does early from the wide barrier given there doesn't look to be a great deal of speed on her immediate inside.

Godolphin galloper Hauraki finished 2nd (0.8L) behind Mongolian Khan in the ATC Derby (2400m) in April and he meets that galloper 2kg better off at the weights today. He has only had two runs in Melbourne, finishing down the track each time (albeit over much shorter trips than this). Not convinced that he has done enough up to this point to justify his quote ($8.50), especially given he is backmarker having his first run at Caulfield.


VERDICT

1. Snow Sky
2. Mongolian Khan
3. Fame Game
4. Rising Romance

Click on the image to view the current Group One winners of the 2015 Spring Carnival.
Click on the image to view the current Group One winners of the 2015 Spring Carnival.