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2015 Caulfield Guineas preview: Kiwi set to steal the spoils

A capacity field of 16 runners has been assembled for this year's $1 million Group One Caulfield Guineas (1600m).

The track will be a Good 3 and the rail is in the true position.

The last time the rail was true here (September 26) the track played evenly throughout.

Speed Map & Tempo

Murray Baker has indicated that he wants Dal Cielo ridden off the speed so don't expect Bosson to lead. That might leave it to Bassett or Snoopy to take up the running ahead of Bon Aurum and possibly Rageese. Lizard Island should find a nice spot just in behind the leading bunch. Bowman will be looking for cover just worse than midfield on Press Statement, while Tulsa and Tarzino should settle at the tail. The blinkers have finally been applied to the enigmatic Ready For Victory so he may land a little closer to the speed here. Not expecting a breakneck tempo.

Click on image to view ALL the Speed maps for the Caulfield meeting.
Click on image to view ALL the Speed maps for the Caulfield meeting.

Analysis
There's always the risk that Dal Cielo's run in the Caulfield Guineas Prelude (1400m) might have knocked him around a bit but his trainer Murray Baker is confident that the colt is raring to go. He led at a strong tempo and was pressured all the way last time but kicked strongly in the straight only to be collared in the shadows of the post. That was the first time he had sported blinkers and hopefully with that experience under his belt he can relax a bit better here just off the speed. The tempo doesn't look overly strong in this so it might be an advantage to be in the first six turning for home.

Press Statement hasn't put a hoof wrong in his six-start career to date and his formlines are first-class. He was good behind potential top-liner Exosphere 1st-up before a totally luckless run in the Group One Golden Rose (1400m) at Rosehill. The Waller-trained colt atoned for that performance with a dominant victory in the Stan Fox (1500m) last start and the extra 100m here certainly holds no fears. The only knock on him is the barrier but that is somewhat offset by the fact that Bowman is riding in career-best form at the moment.

Bassett would be a great story for the Stackhouse clan - Daniel rides and his mother Vicki is a part-owner. The Moody-trained gelding is bred to appreciate the mile so the quick jump from 1100m isn't a major concern. The son of Cox Plate-winner Savabeel did it as his first campaign, finishing 2.4L off Press Statement in the J J Atkins (1600m) at Doomben after winning on debut over 1100m. He scored a decisive victory 1st-up over a couple of above-average gallopers in Keen Array and Mawahibb.

The Hyland-trained Lizard Island could be the value runner here at $26. He is only coming off a Pakenham maiden win but he did it with ease and he has drawn to enjoy a lovely run just off the speed here. Prior to his maiden victory he had been mixing it with Bon Aurum and Stellar Collision who are both up to this level. One thing you know is that he'll be strong at the end of 1600m.

Ready For Victory has been an absolute nightmare for punters this preparation (me included) but the blinkers could really switch him on. The talent is clearly there and the rise to 1600m is a major tick. He is definitely worth including in the quaddie.

Bon Aurum has claims again but the mile is a slight query. Sovereign Nation, Tarzino and Tulsa will all get back in the field but all three will be strong late. Tulsa in particular has a booming finish and will dangerous if the breaks come at the right time.

This isn't the strongest Caulfield Guineas on record but it shapes as a very competitive contest with a host of genuine chances.

Verdict: Dal Cielo each-way ($10 at time of publication).

Click on the image to view the current Group One winners of the 2015 Spring Carnival.
Click on the image to view the current Group One winners of the 2015 Spring Carnival.