Risk management is fundamental to any fantasy football strategy. Let’s be honest: No one wants to endure heartbreak. To help fantasy gamers avoid sob sessions this season, we’re unveiling our top bust candidates, position-by-position. Today, quarterbacks.
Jared Goff, Los Angeles Rams
Andy Behrens: Of all the quarterbacks ranked as viable starters for fantasy purposes, I’m least confident in Goff . And maybe that’s a crazy take, because his receiving corps is excellent and he has that mind-meld thing with Sean McVay. But Goff was mostly a mess over his final eight games last season, playoffs included (7 TDs, 8 INTs). Opposing defenses clearly figured a few things out; Goff and McVay will need to respond if he’s going to approach last year’s production.
Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
Brad Evans: Yes, I've fallen off my rocker, down a cliff and into a deep, dark watery bottom with this take. Before you call for my firing, understand that it's extraordinarily rare for a QB to repeat as position king in consecutive seasons. The last player to accomplish the feat was Drew Brees, 2011-2012. Setting an over/under at 39.5 passing TDs is entirely realistic. Only 13 QBs in NFL history have thrown for 40-plus in a season. It's highly doubtful, despite his otherworldly talents, sterling profile and Tyreek Hill's clearance, that he'll come close to repeating the feat. Regression is inevitable. You'll be overpaying at his 39.4 ADP. Mahomes simply isn't 30-40 picks better than Deshaun Watson, Andrew Luck or Aaron Rodgers.
Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints
Dalton Del Don: Brees is 40 years old and more of a caretaker at this point of his career, as New Orleans has enjoyed great success since becoming more of a run-heavy team. He managed just 6.7 YPA with a 7:5 TD:INT ratio over the final six games last year (playoffs included), and while maybe that was due to playing injured or just small sample noise, it could also be a major red flag that the decline phase is here.
The Saints ranked in the bottom-10 in pass attempts per game last season, so even if Brees returns to his prime, his lack of volume (and even more importantly, any rushing ability) gives him far lower fantasy upside than at least a dozen passers in 2019, yet he’s still being drafted aggressively as the QB7 in Yahoo leagues.
Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals
Liz Loza: There’s no denying Murray’s electric ability. He certainly has the potential to crush it in the future. But forgive me for not being all-in on a rookie QB who will be guided by a rookie head coach.
As discussed on the Yahoo Fantasy Football Podcast, the Cardinals’ opening schedule is not one that will allow Arizona’s offense many opportunities. Facing DET, BAL, CAR, and SEA in the first month of the season, Murray will be fighting to touch the ball against four solid defenses fixated on playing keep-away. Furthermore, he’ll be scrambling (which he’s admittedly fantastic at) behind an offensive line that, despite improvements, PFF still rated as a bottom-three unit heading into 2019. I understand being enamored by a player’s ceiling, but at a position this deep I’d rather wait and see.
Tom Brady, New England Patriots
Scott Pianowski: We have never seen a quarterback pool as deep as the class of 2019. But that doesn't mean there aren't some land mines.
Drew Brees is a problem because of volume concerns, while Tom Brady is a 42-year old quarterback with ordinary weapons and no running backboard. The two most interesting people Brady could throw to, Rob Gronkowski and Josh Gordon, aren't around. Julian Edelman and James White are nice support guys, but you need more steak in this offense.
Brady still has a decent floor if you're playing Superflex, but no longer a notable upside. I can't see him being a justifiable proactive selection in one-quarterback leagues.