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Final Oscar Predictions: Best Cinematography – After Winning ASC, Hoyte van Hoytema Will Finally Win His Overdue Academy Award

Final Oscar Predictions: Best Cinematography – After Winning ASC, Hoyte van Hoytema Will Finally Win His Overdue Academy Award

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

Visit the prediction pages for the respective ceremonies via the links below:

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OSCARS | EMMYS | GRAMMYS | TONYS

2024 Oscars Predictions:
Best Achievement in Cinematography

Weekly Commentary (Updated March 7, 2024): Hoyte Van Hoytema took the top honors at the 38th annual American Society of Cinematographers Awards for his work on “Oppenheimer.”

In its 38-year history, only 17 have gone on to win the Oscar. Last year, Mandy Walker made history when she became the first woman to win an ASC award for her work on “Elvis.” The Academy Award ultimately went to James Friend for “All Quiet on the Western Front.”

This is Hoytema’s to lose.

Will Win: “Oppenheimer” (Hoyte van Hoytema)
Could Win: “Killers of the Flower Moon” (Rodrigo Prieto)
Should Win: “Oppenheimer”
Should have been here: “Ferrari” (Erik Messerschmidt) and “Saltburn” (Linus Sandgren)

Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Oscars predictions in all categories.

The 96th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 10.


And the Nominees Are:


  1. Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures) — Hoyte van Hoytema

  2. Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures) — Rodrigo Prieto

  3. Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures) — Robbie Ryan

  4. Maestro” (Netflix) — Matthew Libatique

  5. El Conde” (Netflix) — Edward Lachman


Eligible Titles (Alphabetized by Studio)**


  • A Haunting in Venice” (20th Century Studios) — Haris Zambarloukos

  • The Creator” (20th Century Studios) — Greig Fraser, Oren Soffer

  • Beau is Afraid” (A24) — Pawel Pogorzelski

  • Dream Scenario” (A24) — Benjamin Loeb

  • The Iron Claw” (A24) — Mátyás Erdély

  • Past Lives” (A24) — Shabier Kirchner

  • Priscilla” (A24) — Philippe Le Sourd

  • Showing Up” (A24) — Christopher Blauvelt

  • The Zone of Interest” (A24) — Łukasz Żal

  • Air” (Amazon MGM Studios) — Robert Richardson

  • The Burial” (Amazon Studios) — Maryse Alberti

  • Cassandro” (Amazon MGM Studios) — Matías Penachino

  • Foe” (Amazon MGM Studios) — Mátyás Erdély

  • Saltburn” (Amazon MGM Studios) — Linus Sandgren

  • Fingernails” (Apple Original Films) — Yorgos Zafeiris

  • Flora and Son” (Apple Original Films) — John Conroy

  • Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures) — Rodrigo Prieto

  • Napoleon” (Apple Original Films/Sony Pictures) — Darius Khondji

  • Golda” (Bleecker Street) — Jasper Wolf

  • Asteroid City” (Focus Features) — Robert Yeoman

  • The Holdovers” (Focus Features) — Eigil Bryid

  • A Thousand and One” (Focus Features) — Eric K. Yue

  • Flamin’ Hot” (Hulu/Searchlight Pictures) — Federico Cantini

  • BlackBerry” (IFC Films) — Jared Raab

  • Monica” (IFC Films) — Katelin Arizmendi

  • The Taste of Things” (IFC Films/Sapan Studio) — Jonathan Ricquebourg

  • Memory” (Ketchup Entertainment) — Yves Cape

  • Story Ave” (Kino Lorber) — Eric Branco

  • Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret” (Lionsgate) — Tim Ives

  • The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes” (Lionsgate) — Jo Willems

  • John Wick Chapter 4” (Lionsgate) — Dan Laustsen

  • Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3” (Marvel Studios) — Henry Braham

  • The Marvels” (Marvel Studios) — Sean Bobbitt

  • American Fiction” (MGM) — Cristina Dunlap

  • Bottoms” (MGM/Orion) — Maria Rusche

  • The Boys in the Boat” (MGM) — Martin Ruhe

  • Guy Ritchie’s The Covenant” (MGM) — Ed Wild

  • Creed III” (MGM) — Kramer Morgenthau

  • Landscape with Invisible Hand” (MGM) — Lyle Vincent

  • Fallen Leaves” (Mubi) — Timo Salminen

  • Anatomy of a Fall” (Neon) — Simon Beaufils

  • Eileen” (Neon) — Ari Wegner

  • Ferrari” (Neon) — Erik Messerschmidt

  • How to Blow Up a Pipeline” (Neon) — Tehillah De Castro

  • La Chimera” (Neon) — Hélène Louvart

  • Origin” (Neon) — Matthew J. Lloyd

  • Perfect Days” (Neon) — Franz Lustig

  • The Royal Hotel” (Neon) — Michael Latham

  • The Deepest Breath” (Netflix) — Tim Cragg

  • El Conde” (Netflix) — Edward Lachman

  • Fair Play” (Netflix) — Menno Mans

  • The Killer” (Netflix) — Erik Messerschmidt

  • May December” (Netflix) — Christopher Blauvelt

  • Maestro” (Netflix) — Matthew Libatique

  • Nyad” (Netflix) — Claudio Miranda

  • Rebel Moon” (Netflix) — Zack Snyder

  • Reptile” (Netflix) — Michael Gioulakis

  • Rustin” (Netflix) — Tobias A. Schliessler

  • Society of the Snow” (Netflix) — Pedro Luque

  • Dungeons & Dragons” (Paramount Pictures) — Barry Peterson

  • Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One” (Paramount Pictures) — Fraser Taggart

  • Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem” (Paramount Pictures) — Kent Seki

  • Elemental” (Pixar) — David Juan Bianchi, Jean-Claude Kalache

  • All of Us Strangers” (Searchlight Pictures) — Jamie D. Ramsay

  • Chevalier” (Searchlight Pictures) — Jess Hall

  • Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures) — Robbie Ryan

  • Theater Camp” (Searchlight Pictures) — Nate Hurtsellers

  • Dumb Money” (Sony Pictures) — Nikolas Karakatsanis

  • Freud’s Last Session” (Sony Pictures Classics) — Ben Smithard

  • Persian Version” (Sony Pictures Classics) — André Jäger

  • Shadya” (Sony Pictures Classics) — Sherwin Akbarzadeh

  • The Teachers’ Lounge” (Sony Pictures Classics) — Judith Kaufmann

  • Fast X” (Universal Pictures) — Stephen F. Windon

  • M3gan” (Universal Pictures) — Peter McCaffrey

  • Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures) — Hoyte van Hoytema

  • She Came to Me” (Vertical Entertainment) — Sam Levy

  • Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom” (Warner Bros.) — Don Burgess

  • Barbie” (Warner Bros.) — Rodrigo Prieto

  • Blue Beetle” (Warner Bros.) — Pawel Pogorzelski

  • The Color Purple” (Warner Bros.) — Dan Laustsen

  • Wonka” (Warner Bros.) — Chung-hoon Chung

  • Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny” (Warner Bros.) — Phedon Papamichael

  • The Little Mermaid” (Walt Disney Pictures) — Dion Beebe

2022 category winner: “All Quiet on the Western Front” (Netflix) — James Friend

Oscars Predictions Categories

BEST PICTURE | DIRECTOR | BEST ACTOR | BEST ACTRESS | SUPPORTING ACTOR | SUPPORTING ACTRESS | ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY | ADAPTED SCREENPLAY | ANIMATED FEATURE | PRODUCTION DESIGN | CINEMATOGRAPHY | COSTUME DESIGN | FILM EDITING | MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING | SOUND | VISUAL EFFECTS | ORIGINAL SCORE | ORIGINAL SONG | DOCUMENTARY FEATURE | INTERNATIONAL FEATURE | ANIMATED SHORT | DOCUMENTARY SHORT | LIVE ACTION SHORT

About the Academy Awards

The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Seventeen branches are represented within the nearly 10,000-person membership. The branches are actors, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films and feature animation, sound, visual effects and writers.

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