Oscars Predictions: Best Picture – ‘Killers of the Flower Moon’ and ‘Past Lives’ Get Boosts After NYFCC and Gotham Wins

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

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2024 Oscars Predictions:
Best Picture

Past Lives
John Magaro and Greta Lee in “Past Lives”

Weekly Commentary (Updated Nov. 30, 2023): The New York Film Critics Circle has significantly boosted the Oscar prospects for Apple and Paramount’s “Killers of the Flower Moon” by securing best film.

NYFCC’s winner for best film has typically had a strong correlation with the Academy Awards’ best picture prize. Since the expansion to nominees in 2009, only “Carol” (2015) and “First Cow” (2020) have missed out on a best picture nom. The latter was the first film in the organization’s long history to fail to garner a single Oscar nom. Since 1935, NYFCC and the Academy have matched 43% of the time.

A24’s Korean American love story “Past Lives,” bagged the coveted best feature award at the Gotham Awards earlier this year, which was crucial for Celine Song’s debut. Also winning best first film at NYFCC, the film was beginning to fade in the background given its early release and smaller (yet powerful) story.

As for Neon’s “Anatomy of a Fall,” its Academy trajectory remains hard to gauge during these early speculation days. Despite it clinching the prestigious Palme d’Or at Cannes, France opted for “The Taste of Things” for its entry into the international feature category at the Oscars. Nevertheless, Neon’s vigorous awards campaign is moving forward for Justine Triet’s courtroom drama. In addition, its dual trophies at Gothams and international win in New York gave it the energy needed to head into Globes, Critics Choice and other early voting.

Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Oscars predictions in all categories.

The submission deadline for general categories is Nov. 15, 2023. The preliminary shortlist for eight categories is from Dec. 14-18, with the results announcement dropping on Dec. 21. The Oscar nomination period will run from Jan. 11-16, 2024, with the official nominees named on Jan. 23.

The 96th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 10.

Listed producer credits are not final and are subject to change. The Academy ultimately determines the official nominees.

And the Predicted Nominees Are:

  1. Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)
    Emma Thomas, Charles Roven, Christopher Nolan

  2. Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
    Dan Friedkin, Martin Scorsese, Bradley Thomas, Daniel Lupi

  3. American Fiction” (MGM)
    Cord Jefferson, Jermaine Johnson, Nikos Karamigios, Ben LeClair

  4. Barbie” (Warner Bros.)
    David Heyman, Margot Robbie, Tom Ackerley, Robbie Brenner

  5. Maestro” (Netflix)
    Fred Berner, Bradley Cooper, Amy Durning, Kristie Macosko Krieger, Martin Scorsese, Steven Spielberg

  6. The Holdovers” (Focus Features)
    Mark Johnson, Bill Block, David Hemingson

  7. Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures)
    Ed Guiney, Andrew Lowe, Yorgos Lanthimos, Emma Stone

  8. Past Lives” (A24)
    David Hinojosa, Pamela Koffler, Christine Vachon

  9. May December” (Netflix)
    Jessica Elbaum, Will Ferrell, Grant S. Johnson, Pamela Koffler, Tyler W. Konney, Sophie Mas, Natalie Portman, Christine Vachon

  10. Origin” (Neon)
    Ava DuVernay, Paul Garnes

Next in Line

  1. The Zone of Interest” (A24)
    Ewa Puszczynska, James Wilson

  2. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” (Sony Pictures)
    Avi Arad, Phil Lord, Christopher Miller, Amy Pascal, Christina Steinberg

  3. The Color Purple” (Warner Bros.)
    Quincy Jones, Scott Sanders, Steven Spielberg, Oprah Winfrey

  4. Ferrari” (Neon)
    Monika Bacardi, Thomas Hayslip, Andrea Iervolino, John Lesher, Michael Mann, Laura Rister, Thorsten Schumacher, Lars Sylvest, P.J. van Sandwijk, Gareth West

  5. Anatomy of a Fall” (Neon)
    Marie-Ange Luciani, David Thion

  6. Air” (Amazon MGM Studios)
    Ben Affleck, Madison Ainley, Jason Michael Berman, Matt Damon, David Ellison, Peter Guber, Jeff Robinov, Jesse Sisgold, Jon Weinbach

  7. The Iron Claw” (A24)
    Sean Durkin, Juliette Howell, Angus Lamont, Tessa Ross

  8. Saltburn” (Amazon MGM Studios)
    Emerald Fennell, Josey McNamara, Tom Ackerley, Margot Robbie

  9. The Taste of Things” (IFC Films/Sapan Studio)
    Olivier Delbosc

  10. Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret.” (Lionsgate)
    Julie Ansell, James L. Brooks, Kelly Fremon Craig

Other Top-Tier Possibilities

  1. All of Us Strangers” (Searchlight Pictures)
    Graham Broadbent, Peter Czernin, Sarah Harvey

  2. Napoleon” (Apple Original Films/Sony Pictures)
    Mark Huffam, Ridley Scott, Kevin J. Walsh

  3. Rustin” (Netflix)
    Bruce Cohen, Tonia Davis

  4. BlackBerry” (IFC Films)
    Fraser Ash, Niv Fichman, Kevin Krikst, Matthew Miller

  5. Memory” (Ketchup Entertainment)
    Michel Franco, Duncan Montgomery, Eréndira Núñez Larios, Alex Orlovsky

  6. American Symphony” (Netflix)
    Lauren Domino, Matthew Heineman, Joedan Okun

  7. Priscilla” (A24)
    Sofia Coppola, Youree Henley, Lorenzo Mieli

  8. The Teachers’ Lounge” (Sony Pictures Classics)
    Ingo Fliess

  9. Nyad” (Netflix)
    Andrew Lazar, Teddy Schwarzman

  10. Society of the Snow” (Netflix)
    Belén Atienza, Sandra Hermida

Also In Contention

  1. Freud’s Last Session” (Sony Pictures Classics)
    Alan Greisman, Hannah Leader, Rick Nicita, Robert Stillman, Meg Thomson

  2. Wish” (Walt Disney Pictures)
    Peter Del Vecho, Juan Pablo Reyes Lancaster-Jones

  3. Fair Play” (Netflix)
    Leopold Hughes, Ben LeClair, Allan Mandelbaum, Tim White, Trevor White

  4. Dream Scenario” (A24)
    Ari Aster, Tyler Campellone, Jacob Jaffke, Lars Knudsen

  5. The Boys in the Boat” (MGM)
    George Clooney, Grant Heslov

  6. Fingernails” (Apple Original Films)
    Cate Blanchett, Coco Francini, Christos Nikou, Andrew Upton, Lucas Wiesendanger

  7. Dumb Money” (Sony Pictures)
    Craig Gillespie, Aaron Ryder, Teddy Schwarzman

  8. The Burial” (Amazon MGM Studios)
    Jamie Foxx, Jenette Kahn, Celine Rattray, Adam Richman, Robert Shriver, Trudie Styler, Datari Turner

  9. Flamin’ Hot” (Hulu/Searchlight Pictures)
    DeVon Franklin

  10. Asteroid City” (Focus Features)
    Wes Anderson, Jeremy Dawson, Steven Rales

Eligible Titles (Alphabetized by Studio)**

  • A Haunting in Venice” (20th Century Studios)

  • The Creator” (20th Century Studios)

  • All Dirt Roads Taste of Salt” (A24)

  • Beau is Afraid” (A24)

  • Dicks: The Musical” (A24)

  • Dream Scenario” (A24)

  • Earth Mama” (A24)

  • The Iron Claw” (A24)

  • Past Lives” (A24)

  • Priscilla” (A24)

  • Showing Up” (A24)

  • Talk to Me” (A24)

  • When You Finish Saving the World” (A24)

  • You Hurt My Feelings” (A24)

  • The Zone of Interest” (A24)

  • Air” (Amazon MGM Studios)

  • The Burial” (Amazon MGM Studios)

  • Cassandro” (Amazon MGM Studios)

  • Foe” (Amazon MGM Studios)

  • Guy Ritchie’s The Covenant” (Amazon MGM Studios)

  • Saltburn” (Amazon MGM Studios)

  • The Beanie Bubble” (Apple Original Films)

  • Fingernails” (Apple Original Films)

  • Flora and Son” (Apple Original Films)

  • Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)

  • Napoleon” (Apple Original Films/Sony Pictures)

  • The Pigeon Tunnel” (Apple Original Films)

  • Tetris” (Apple Original Films)

  • Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie” (Apple Original Films)

  • Across the River and Into the Trees” (Bleecker Street)

  • Golda” (Bleecker Street)

  • The Origin” (Bleecker Street)

  • Suzume” (Crunchyroll)

  • Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken” (DreamWorks Animation)

  • Trolls Band Together” (DreamWorks Animation)

  • Asteroid City” (Focus Features)

  • Every Body” (Focus Features)

  • The Holdovers” (Focus Features)

  • My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3” (Focus Features)

  • A Thousand and One” (Focus Features)

  • The Boy and the Heron” (GKids)

  • Flamin’ Hot” (Hulu/Searchlight Pictures)

  • BlackBerry” (IFC Films)

  • Monica” (IFC Films)

  • R.M.N.” (IFC Films)

  • The Taste of Things” (IFC Films/Sapan Studio)

  • Migration” (Illumination)

  • The Super Mario Bros. Movie” (Illumination)

  • Story Ave.” (Kino Lorber)

  • Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret” (Lionsgate)

  • The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes” (Lionsgate)

  • John Wick Chapter 4” (Lionsgate)

  • Joy Ride” (Lionsgate)

  • Baby Ruby” (Magnet Releasing)

  • Little Richard: I Am Everything” (Magnolia Pictures)

  • Master Gardener” (Magnolia Pictures)

  • The Stones and Brian Jones” (Magnolia Pictures)

  • Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quanumania” (Marvel Studios)

  • Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3” (Marvel Studios)

  • The Marvels” (Marvel Studios)

  • Bottoms” (MGM/Orion)

  • American Fiction” (MGM)

  • The Boys in the Boat” (MGM)

  • Creed III” (MGM)

  • Landscape with Invisible Hand” (MGM)

  • A Million Miles Away” (MGM)

  • The Eternal Memory” (MTV Documentary Films)

  • The Delinquents” (Mubi)

  • Fallen Leaves” (Mubi)

  • High & Low: John Galliano” (Mubi)

  • The Settlers” (Mubi)

  • Anatomy of a Fall” (Neon)

  • Eileen” (Neon)

  • Ferrari” (Neon)

  • How to Blow Up a Pipeline” (Neon)

  • La Chimera” (Neon)

  • Longlegs” (Neon)

  • Mothers’ Instinct” (Neon)

  • Origin” (Neon)

  • Perfect Days” (Neon)

  • Robot Dreams” (Neon)

  • The Royal Hotel” (Neon)

  • American Symphony” (Netflix)

  • Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget” (Netflix)

  • The Deepest Breath” (Netflix)

  • El Conde” (Netflix)

  • Fair Play” (Netflix)

  • The Killer” (Netflix)

  • Leave the World Behind” (Netflix)

  • Leo” (Netflix)

  • May December” (Netflix)

  • Maestro” (Netflix)

  • The Magician’s Elephant” (Netflix)

  • Miraculous: Ladybug & Cat Noir: The Movie” (Netflix)

  • The Monkey King” (Netflix)

  • Nimona” (Netflix)

  • Nyad” (Netflix)

  • Pain Hustlers” (Netflix)

  • Rebel Moon” (Netflix)

  • Reptile” (Netflix)

  • Rustin” (Netflix)

  • Society of the Snow” (Netflix)

  • Stamped from the Beginning” (Netflix)

  • They Cloned Tyrone” (Netflix)

  • Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves” (Paramount Pictures)

  • Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One” (Paramount Pictures)

  • Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem” (Paramount Pictures)

  • Transformers: Rise of the Beasts” (Paramount Pictures)

  • Elemental” (Pixar)

  • Black Ice” (Roadside Attractions)

  • Camp Hideout” (Roadside Attractions)

  • Dreamin’ Wild” (Roadside Attractions)

  • The Last Rider” (Roadside Attractions)

  • Moving On” (Roadside Attractions)

  • The Pod Generation” (Roadside Attractions/Vertical Entertainment)

  • Somewhere in Queens” (Roadside Attractions)

  • All of Us Strangers” (Searchlight Pictures)

  • Chevalier” (Searchlight Pictures)

  • Next Goal Wins” (Searchlight Pictures)

  • Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures)

  • Theater Camp” (Searchlight Pictures)

  • Dumb Money” (Sony Pictures)

  • The Equalizer 3” (Sony Pictures)

  • No Hard Feelings” (Sony Pictures)

  • Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” (Sony Pictures)

  • Freud’s Last Session” (Sony Pictures Classics)

  • The Miracle Club” (Sony Pictures Classics)

  • The Peasants” (Sony Pictures Classics)

  • Persian Version” (Sony Pictures Classics)

  • Shadya” (Sony Pictures Classics)

  • Shortcomings” (Sony Pictures Classics)

  • The Teachers’ Lounge” (Sony Pictures Classics)

  • They Shot the Piano Player” (Sony Pictures Classics)

  • Cocaine Bear” (Universal Pictures)

  • The Exorcist: Believer” (Universal Pictures)

  • Fast X” (Universal Pictures)

  • M3gan” (Universal Pictures)

  • Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)

  • She Came to Me” (Vertical Entertainment)

  • Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny” (Walt Disney Pictures)

  • The Little Mermaid” (Walt Disney Pictures)

  • Wish” (Walt Disney Pictures)

  • Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom” (Warner Bros.)

  • Barbie” (Warner Bros.)

  • Blue Beetle” (Warner Bros.)

  • The Color Purple” (Warner Bros.)

  • The Flash” (Warner Bros.)

  • Wonka” (Warner Bros.)

2022 category winner: “Everything Everywhere All at Once” (A24) — Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert and Jonathan Wang (producers)

** indicates an unconfirmed release date in 2023 or could campaign in the lead or supporting categories. All release dates are subject to change.

Oscars Predictions Categories


About the Academy Awards

The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Seventeen branches are represented within the nearly 10,000-person membership. The branches are actors, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films and feature animation, sound, visual effects and writers.

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