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NFL against the spread picks: Can the Steelers break their Patriots hex?

Tom Brady and Ben Roethlisberger meet again on Sunday. (AP)
Tom Brady and Ben Roethlisberger meet again on Sunday. (AP)

Whether it’s home or road, playoffs or regular season, being on the wrong end of a Jesse James catch rule controversy or not, the one thing the Pittsburgh Steelers can’t figure out is how to beat the New England Patriots.

And with the Steelers needing a win on Sunday — and they need a win more than almost anyone has mentioned this week, because Pittsburgh is suddenly no lock to make the playoffs anymore — they need to figure out the Patriots in a hurry. They have lost five in a row to New England, nine of 11 and are an amazing 3-12 in their last 15 against the Patriots. That better change Sunday, or the playoff picture for Pittsburgh gets pretty scary.

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Here’s the Steelers’ worst-case situation, as it pertains to the playoffs:

• Lose to the Patriots this week and at the 11-2 Saints next week. The Steelers’ best finish if that happens would be 8-7-1.

• Ravens win two of three. They would be 9-7.

• Any one of the Titans, Colts or Dolphins win two of three. That team would be 9-7.

And that’s how the Steelers could miss the playoffs. It’s not that outlandish.

The Patriots have their own issues. They’re 3-4 on the road this season. Even if you want to dismiss the loss last week to a miraculous Kenyan Drake touchdown, the Patriots still couldn’t put away a mediocre Dolphins team. This is not a vintage Patriots team, at least on the road. And they probably need a win Sunday to get a first-round bye, and avoid an extra road game in January.

The Steelers really haven’t looked right in a month, but I’m going to take Pittsburgh as a pick ’em in the Yahoo Pro Football Pick’em and as a 2.5-point underdog in the Westgate SuperContest. I think the Patriots, until proven otherwise, are a mediocre road team, and the Steelers need this game more than has been talked about all week. If the Steelers lose, that’s probably when everyone will figure out that a team which started 7-2-1 could end up without a playoff berth.

Here are the rest of the against the spread picks for Week 15:

SUPERCONTEST

Browns (+3) at Broncos: The wrong team might be favored here. That loss to the 49ers has to take all the air out of the Broncos season, which actually had some momentum for a little bit.

Bills (-2.5) over Lions: The Lions have been sneaky disappointing this season. At least with Jim Caldwell they were going 9-7 the last couple years. With Matt Patricia, the Lions are a boring and bad team.

Colts (-3) over Cowboys: Nothing against the Cowboys, but this is a big letdown spot. Everyone knew last week was practically a playoff game against the Eagles, and the Cowboys won in overtime. They have the NFC East all but wrapped up, with no chance to get a first-round bye. There’s not a lot for them to play for this week. Meanwhile, the Colts are fighting for a wild-card spot. (The line is Colts -2.5 in the Yahoo Pro Football Pick’em.)

Dolphins (+7) over Vikings: Not a lot of reason to lay a touchdown with the Vikings against mostly anyone, much less a team still in a playoff race like the Dolphins. (The line is Dolphins +7.5 in the Yahoo Pro Football Pick’em.)

And here are the rest of the picks …

Chiefs (-3.5) over Chargers (picked Thursday): Have we had an NFL regular season with more classic games? We had another one Thursday night. It’s incredible to think the Chiefs could end up as the fifth seed in the AFC, but they probably need to win at Seattle in Week 16 to avoid that.

Texans (-7) over Jets: The Texans are a good team, but they were due a loss eventually. And the Colts gave it to them last week. New York is a lot better with Sam Darnold, but they have no healthy running backs, and I think the Texans will get right back on track.

Cardinals (+10) over Falcons: The Cardinals are terrible and the Falcons don’t want to play anymore. This is the type of game you get late in an NFL season.

Bears (-5.5) over Packers: I don’t think Joe Philbin is a great coach or anything. What you saw from the Packers last week was a one-week bounce after their system was shocked from Mike McCarthy being fired. They also were fortunate to play a Falcons team that has totally checked out. While it might normally be a letdown spot for the Bears, after a huge primetime win over the Rams, this is a big rivalry and the Bears will want to make up for blowing that game at Lambeau Field in Week 1.

Raiders (+3) over Bengals: The Raiders actually haven’t been that bad the past few weeks. They have won two of four and played the Chiefs tougher than anyone figured. Derek Carr is playing better. It’s tough to trust them on the road, but it’s no prize to pick the Jeff Driskel-led Bengals either.

Titans (+2.5) over Giants: I’m assuming Odell Beckham won’t play with this pick. It’s a little scary because the Titans are tough to back on the road, like a lot of NFL teams.

Redskins (+7.5) over Jaguars: Yeah, Washington looked awful last week. And Josh Johnson probably isn’t the answer. But Jaguars coach Doug Marrone has been doing a miserable job with a talented roster all season, so why would that change now?

Buccaneers (+9.5) over Ravens: The Buccaneers won’t have an easy time against a very good Ravens defense. But the Ravens aren’t designed to blow teams out.

Seahawks (-5) over 49ers: The 49ers with Nick Mullens have been better at home. But the Seahawks don’t want to lose their grip on the fifth seed in the NFC for and I think they’ll handle business.

Rams (-10.5) over Eagles: Even though it was an overtime game last week, the Eagles got thoroughly outplayed by the Cowboys. Philly was lucky to be in the game. It won’t get better without Carson Wentz. And the Rams will want to shake off last week’s loss.

Panthers (+7) over Saints: I think the Saints win, but the line is high. The Panthers are in a five-game losing streak, but most of the losses have been close.

Last week: 8-8
Season to date: 100-101-8
SuperContest: 2-3 last week, 30-38-2 season to date

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Frank Schwab is a writer for Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at shutdown.corner@yahoo.com or follow him on Twitter!

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