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NFL player props: Raiders' Derek Carr is a clunker in cold weather games

Greg Brainos
·2-min read

We're in for an exciting slate of playoff football this weekend as every game except one is a rematch between teams who have already played each other this season. Here are three player props I'll be betting this week on BetMGM:

Derek Carr under 250.5 passing yards

The California native turns into a pumpkin whenever the temperature drops. Carr owns a positive Expected Points Added per play in his career when it's warmer than 40 degrees, but dips into the negative as it gets colder. Per Paul Dehner Jr., Carr is 0-5 in games where the temperature was 37 degrees or less at kickoff. Today's game in Cincinnati will be a brisk one, kicking off in the low 30s. To compound matters for the Raiders QB, a key component to hitting prop overs is staying on the field. Las Vegas ranks 22nd in third-down conversion rate, converting just 37.4% of the time.

Josh Allen under 239.5 passing yards

Allen is another quarterback with no chill. The Bills QB has played five games in freezing temperatures in his career, averaging 166.6 passing yards per game, completing 50.3% of his passes, and tossing six touchdowns to seven interceptions. Today's 7-degree matchup versus the Patriots will be his sixth game in such weather. Multiple Buffalo receivers have complained about Allen throwing with too much zip on the ball at times, especially in cold temperatures. New England's defense ranks second in opponent completion percentage (59.3%) and opponent passing yards per game (187.1).

Deebo Samuel longest reception over 25.5 yards

Samuel is the kind of problem that not even an MIT janitor can solve. Whether he's lined up in the backfield, in the slot, or out wide, the Niners receiver can turn a small gain into a field-long sprint ending in paydirt. Samuel finished second in the NFL in YAC (779) and exceeded this prop in 12 of his 16 games this year, including each of his past four. The Cowboys defense led the league in turnovers due to their exceptionally aggressive style of play, but there's another side to that coin. Dallas has been burned for the fifth-most receptions of 20-plus yards and the third-most receptions of 40-plus.

Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Derek Carr is 0-5 in games where the temperature was 37 degrees or less at kickoff. (Kirby Lee/USA TODAY Sports)

Stats provided by Pro Football Reference, teamrankings.com, nflfastr.com and nfl.com.