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NFL player prop of the day: What can Antonio Brown do for you?

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Antonio Brown is one of the best receivers in the history of the NFL. After a couple extended sabbaticals, he came back into the league last year at 32 years old and consistently manhandled whatever kind of coverage defenses threw at him: man (75.9% success rate in getting open), zone (82.7%), press (70.5%), it didn't matter. The guy is an elite technician and the only person who can stop Antonio Brown is Antonio Brown.

That's what makes his low line of 745.5 receiving yards at BetMGM so enticing. It's a fun sweat that should easily hit if he doesn't get into trouble. Conditional free money.

The Buc starts here

It didn't take much time for Brown to fit right into the Tampa Bay offense. Following an eight-game suspension, he accumulated 13 targets in his first two games with the Bucs and then another 13 in his third game. Brown finished the regular season averaging 7.75 targets and 60.4 receiving yards per game.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Antonio Brown averaged 7.75 targets per game in 2020. (Kim Klement/USA TODAY Sports)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Antonio Brown averaged 7.75 targets per game in 2020. (Kim Klement/USA TODAY Sports)

Tom Brady has always been fond of his slot receivers and Tampa Bay ran 3-plus wide receiver sets on 68% of their plays last year, well above the league average. Their 67% pass rate ranked first in the NFL. We should see similar usage this season, which means we can expect a lot of targets for Brown and barely any double-team coverage (3.3% in 2020) with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin keeping defenses busy.

The Bucs have the NFL's fourth-easiest schedule in 2021 and I think this prop bet for Brown is one of the easiest on the board. Over 745.5 receiving yards.

Stats provided by ReceptionPerception.com, SharpFootball, and pro football reference

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