NFL betting roundtable: Is this the Chargers' year? Looking at best AFC season win totals
There's more free time than usual before this NFL season.
The four-game preseason was cut down to three, so there will be no NFL games this week. It means an extra week to obsess over future bets.
Yahoo Sports' Scott Pianowski and Frank Schwab will discuss the various markets at BetMGM for future bets this week, starting with the best AFC win total bets for the season.
What is your best bet among season win totals in the AFC?
FS: I was all about the Indianapolis Colts before the Carson Wentz injury. Then I cooled on them, obviously, but Wentz is back on track to return for Week 1 or shortly after. And with the total adjusted down to 8.5, I'm fine getting back on the bandwagon (though I'd be lying if I didn't say I was a little worried about some of their players, including Wentz, going on the COVID-19 list this week). I know you'll scold me for injury optimism, and you might be right, but with all that team has to offer (including coaching; I think Frank Reich is one of the best) it's very hard for me to believe the Colts will be 8-9 or worse. All Wentz has to be is average, which he was in 2018 and 2019 for the most part.
SP: This has to be the year of the Chargers, right? There's never been a question bout the roster depth, but they finally have the quarterback right. What if the new coaching is a home run? In a division where Kansas City is dangerous but flawed, and Denver and Las Vegas are just flawed, period, I think the Chargers could steal the title. This is the Chargers moment we've been waiting for all these years. I'll take the over of 9.5 wins.
FS: I like the Chargers too, I grabbed their over for what seems like the 10th straight year. One of these years, they won't disappoint us all.
Is there an under for the AFC that stands out?
FS: I don't like the Broncos this season. It's hard to bet over on 8.5 wins when you don't trust the coach or quarterback. I don't know what their offensive identity will be. The Broncos will have a good defense, but there are no gimmes in the AFC West (not even the Raiders), and I can't get Denver to above .500 this season. I'm on the under.
SP: You swiped the Broncos under out of my hands. Vic Fangio can't be trusted, and the division is going to beat them up.
Any other interesting win totals for the AFC?
FS: I don't like taking the under on the lowest totals on the board, or the overs on the highest totals on the board, but I made an exception for the Houston Texans. I just don't see a path for them winning games, and I'll take under 4.5 wins even at -150 odds. I'll also completely contradict my first statement and add that I like the Buffalo Bills over 11.5 wins. There's a little concern they'll lave a small drop after a breakout 2020 season, but I believe in what they have built.
SP: I'm going to punch under 9.5 on Miami. I'm still not sure Tua Tagovailoa is good. The division could be trickier than expected; Buffalo remains loaded, and Bill Belichick actually has the defense he wants, other than the uncertain Stephon Gilmore. Even the Jets can be a little frisky; Zach Wilson won me over quickly with his poise and intelligence. (Maybe I spend too much time with NYJ sympathizers.)
Miami looks like a team on the come, but until they have quarterback solved, it's a capped upside.