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Bettors may be split on Heat-Sixers, but there’s an overwhelming preference in the Western Conference matchup, where the Suns are 1.5-point favorites at BetMGM.
Rise of the Phoenix
Despite Dallas winning both of its home games in the series, the public is loading up on Phoenix with 92% of the handle counting on them to cover the spread. The Suns have failed to cover in three of their last four road games.
Phoenix will have to do more than just shut down Luka Doncic’s scoring if they want to wrap things up in Dallas. The Slovenian wunderkind is averaging 10 less points per game at home this series, converting only 20 of his 50 shot attempts, including 3-of-17 from downtown.
It’s the offense that Doncic created for his teammates, paired with the Mavs’ defensive efforts, that proved to be the difference in Games 3 and 4. Dallas turned the Suns over 17 times in each contest.
That defense may be the reason why 93% of the handle is on the game going under its total of 212.5 points. After the first two matchups in the series went over, the last three games have all stayed under the total. Phoenix ranks third in defensive efficiency this year. The Mavs rank seventh and played at the slowest pace in the NBA during the regular season.
Sharp money on Heat-Sixers under
The under is 3-2 in the Heat-Sixers series and there’s some serious money betting that it will be 4-2 after tonight. A majority of tickets are on the over, but 82% of the handle thinks that the game will finish under 207.5 points.
A majority of bettors are also taking the Heat, with 52% of tickets on Miami +2.5 and 67% on the +115 moneyline. Sixers coach Doc Rivers is 14-16 in elimination games.
Philly will need a hobbled Joel Embiid to both figuratively and literally rebound tonight — as well as score — after turning in his lowest point and rebound totals of the playoffs in Game 5’s blowout loss to Miami. The league leader in free throw attempts per game (11.5) finished with just three attempts from the line.
Stats provided by Basketball Reference, teamrankings.com, StatMuse, and nba.com.