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MLB betting: Can Milwaukee's pitching shut down Atlanta's hitting in NLDS?

Nick Bromberg
·College football and motorsports writer
·3-min read

Welcome to Yahoo Sports' Division Series betting previews. Below you'll find all the odds available at BetMGM for the ALDS between the Atlanta Braves and Milwaukee Brewers along with our predicted winner.

Game 1 of the series is Friday at 4:30 p.m. ET on TBS.

Series winner odds

Milwaukee Brewers (-145)

Atlanta Braves (+120)

Exact outcome odds

  • Brewers sweep (+450)

  • Brewers 3-1 (+425)

  • Brewers 3-2 (+300)

  • Braves sweep (+900)

  • Braves 3-1 (+400)

  • Braves 3-2 (+425)

General series odds

  • 3-game series (+275)

  • 4-game series (+150)

  • 5-game series (+145)

  • 3 or 5 game series (-185)

Series schedule

  1. Game 1: Friday

  2. Game 2: Saturday

  3. Game 3: Monday

  4. Game 4 (if necessary): Tuesday

  5. Game 5 (if necessary): Oct. 14

MILWAUKEE, WISCONSIN - SEPTEMBER 26: Milwaukee Brewers celebrates winning the Central Division title after the game against the New York Mets at American Family Field on September 26, 2021 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Brewers defeated the Mets 8-4. (Photo by John Fisher/Getty Images)
The Brewers celebrate winning the Central Division title at American Family Field on Sept. 26, 2021, in Milwaukee. (Photo by John Fisher/Getty Images) (John Fisher via Getty Images)

Milwaukee Brewers (-145)

The Brewers have the worst lineup of any playoff team. Milwaukee’s team OPS is .713 — the league average is .728. The St. Louis Cardinals are the only other playoff team with a below-average offense and no other division winner had an OPS worse than .749.

Shortstop Willy Adames has been Milwaukee’s best hitter, while Avasail Garcia led the team in home runs with 29. Christian Yelich has struggled (by his standards) after he missed time earlier in the season due to injuries. Yelich has hit just nine homers in 399 at-bats and his OPS of .736 is the lowest of his career.

This is, of course, setting up to talk about how good the Brewers’ pitching has been in 2021. The rotation is ridiculous with Brandon Woodruff, Corbin Burnes and Freddy Peralta all posting ERAs under 3.00 and striking out way more than a batter per inning. The bullpen has been great too with Josh Hader as the anchor, but Devin Williams’ absence could be a big deal after he punched a wall late in the regular season. Only the Dodgers and Giants had better team ERAs than Milwaukee in 2021.

Atlanta Braves' Freddie Freeman eyes a fly ball hit against the New York Mets during a baseball game Sunday, Oct. 3, 2021, in Atlanta. (AP Photo/Ben Margot)

Atlanta Braves (+120)

Only the Giants hit more homers (241) than the Braves among National League teams in 2021. Atlanta whacked 239 home runs as Austin Riley, Freddie Freeman and Ozzie Albies each hit at least 30. Ronald Acuna Jr. was on track to easily break the 30-homer mark until he suffered a torn right ACL in July. That injury knocked him out for the season, though the Braves’ trade deadline acquisition of Jorge Soler to help replace him has paid off.

Soler has hit 14 HR in 242 plate appearances with the Braves and has been the team’s fourth-best hitter since he arrived.

Veteran Charlie Morton will start Game 1 for the Braves after posting a 3.34 ERA and 216 strikeouts in 185.2 innings. Max Fried is likely to go in Game 2 and Ian Anderson seems like the likeliest candidate to start in Game 3. The Braves’ bullpen has been a weakness at times in 2021 outside of the core four of Will Smith, Luke Jackson, Tyler Matzek and A.J. Minter. They each logged at least 61 appearances. Jesse Chavez, 37, had a 2.14 ERA in 30 games and could be a valuable mid-inning piece during the postseason.

Series prediction

Milwaukee in 5. While Atlanta certainly has the better offense, I’m not sure I can trust the entirety of the Braves’ bullpen, especially if a starter gets in trouble early. I do think Williams’ injury will play a role for Milwaukee at some point in the postseason, but it may not really matter until the NLCS.