Would you rather bet on Sergio Perez or Max Verstappen to win the Miami Grand Prix?
The two Red Bull drivers have been the class of the field so far this season and are the two overwhelming favorites to win Sunday’s race (3:30 p.m. ET, ABC). Verstappen is the favorite at -200 while Perez is at +300 after he just won the Azerbaijan Grand Prix.
Both drivers each have two wins across the first four races of the 2023 season as Red Bull already has a dominating lead in the constructor’s championship. Perez has wins at Saudi Arabia and in Baku while Verstappen won the season-opening race in Bahrain and in Australia.
If you’re leaning toward Perez, we can understand why. His two wins this season have been on F1’s street courses and the Miami setup is another street course around Hard Rock Stadium. Five of Perez’s six career F1 wins are on street courses.
Conversely, you don’t have to do much convincing of yourself to bet Verstappen. He’s been the fastest driver all season and could have easily been the winner in Baku if it wasn’t for a safety car period. Verstappen pitted from the lead while Nick De Vries’ car was stopped on track and before F1 officials implemented a safety car. Perez then pitted a couple laps later under the safety car and took over the lead. He never relinquished it.
Verstappen is also the defending winner of the Miami Grand Prix. He started third a season ago behind Ferrari’s Charles Leclerc and Carlos Sainz and needed less than nine laps to take the lead. He then held onto the lead for the rest of the race — sans a lap for a pit stop — and cruised to a 3.8-second win over Leclerc.
Leclerc is the No. 3 favorite to win the race at +1200, while Fernando Alonso is at +1400. Alonso finished fourth in Baku to break his streak of three straight third-place finishes to start the year. Lewis Hamilton is +2000 to win the race while George Russell is +2200 and Sainz is +2500. No other driver is better than +8000.
Here are a few bets to consider ahead of Sunday’s race weekend. As always, wait as long as you can until after practice and qualifying to make your race wagers.
Sergio Perez to finish top three (-350)
It’s a street course. We have to bet on Perez to have a good finish. He finished fourth a season ago.
George Russell to finish in the top six (-300)
We think Miami could be a bit more like Australia, and Mercedes had great pace down under. Russell was looking great for a top-three finish before his engine went kablooie.
Max Verstappen to win pole (-125)
We’re intrigued by Leclerc at +200 to win pole after he scored the top qualifying spot in Baku. But we’re also not sure just how much Ferrari over-performed in Azerbaijan. We’ll take Verstappen at these odds.
Lando Norris to finish ahead of Pierre Gasly (-120)
McLaren seems to be pointing in the right direction, while Alpine needs to get things together. Norris has 10 points. Gasly and teammate Esteban Ocon have combined for eight.
Zhou Guanyu to finish ahead of Logan Sergeant (-120)
Alfa Romeo had a pretty good car at Miami a year ago as Valtteri Bottas finished seventh. Zhou only made it six laps because of a water leak. We think he’ll make it to the end of the race this year.