Daily Fantasy Week 5: Monday night picks for Colts-Ravens
By Jeff Hicks, 4for4
Special to Yahoo Sports
Yahoo is expanding its daily fantasy football options in 2021 with a single-game offering. Yahoo has a roster construction of one "Superstar" that scores at a 1.5 multiplier, while the remaining four FLEX roster spots accumulate points at the normal rate. This is half-point PPR scoring and the "Superstar" salary does not change from the Utility. All scoring and rules can be found here.
Two teams battling injuries finish Week 5 as the Indianapolis Colts take on the Baltimore Ravens.
It is vital to remember that single-game slates are not simply a “max salary, play as many big names as possible, and submit” format, especially in larger tournament fields. We need to identify players who can be pieces in their offense’s success, whether in the lead or trailing, as well as the players who could be focal points in a neutral game script. The ability to then take those players and identify which will succeed in the single-game format will put us in a better position to succeed as daily fantasy players.
Vegas Total and Spread
The Ravens are 7-point home favorites with an Over/Under of 46.5 points. Baltimore has an implied team total of 26.75 points, while Indianapolis has an implied team total of 19.75.
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Potential Game Flow Scenarios
Injuries play a part in both teams’ decisions on offense and defense. Each offense is without starting linemen and defensive presences. The Ravens offense is predicated on the run game and could face a Colts defense without two defensive linemen and at least one starting defensive back. Lamar Jackson ($36) does not need depth issues to attack opposing defenses but sees a boost with so many concerns on one side of the ball.
That also means Latavius Murray ($14), Devonta Freeman ($10), and maybe the ghost of Ty'Son Williams ($16) gets to eat at the same table as Jackson — Le'Veon Bell is not listed in the player pool on Yahoo for this contest. The Colts were ninth in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed (aFPA) to the running back position. The Ravens are rushing the ball 31.8 times per game, including 41 attempts per game at home this season.
Those elevated attempts at home are in part to a limited passing attack that focuses around Marquise Brown ($21), Mark Andrews ($20), and 2021 free agent Sammy Watkins ($18). The former first-rounder is second on the Ravens in air yards, expected touchdowns (xTD), and targets. Those three are the only Ravens pass-catchers seeing over three targets per game. With Rock Ya-Sin out and Khari Willis' status unclear for the Colts, the secondary is in trouble.
The Colts' offense has a similar pace of play as Baltimore’s without the same success. The majority of Indy’s plays come while trailing and throw inside the red zone at a slightly higher rate than the Ravens. The Colts are also average 45.0 combined points per team involved per game, the 10th lowest in the league. That has not hurt Jonathan Taylor’s usage as much as his fantasy point production has shown. Taylor has 20 total touches (19 rushes, 2 targets, 1 catch) in the red zone. His 19 rushing attempts were tied for third-most heading into Week 5.
Carson Wentz ($22) has been okay considering he is recovering from foot surgery and two sprained ankles. Even without the veteran leadership of T.Y. Hilton, Michael Pittman Jr. ($17) and Zach Pascal ($16) have taken steps forward in a passing offense with a lot of unknowns prior to this season. Pittman has especially stood out as the lead receiver, collecting the most targets and air yards on the team. His 40% market share of air yards is the 12th most in the NFL ahead of Week 5.
The Colts needed tackle Braden Smith to suit up, but with him out secondary targets such as Jack Doyle ($15), Mo Alie-Cox ($13), and Nyheim Hines ($16) will be spending the majority of their snaps helping the offensive line.
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Close, low-scoring game
Jonathan Taylor, Nyheim Hines
Colts defense
Lamar Jackson
Latavius Murray
Ravens defense
Close, high-scoring game
Carson Wentz
Jonathan Taylor, Nyheim Hines
Michael Pittman Jr., Zach Pascal
Lamar Jackson
Latavius Murray
Marquise Brown, Sammy Watkins
Mark Andrews
Blowout for home team
Lamar Jackson
Latavius Murray
Marquise Brown, Sammy Watkins, Devin Duvernay
Mark Andrews
Ravens defense
Jonathan Taylor, Nyheim Hines
Michael Pittman Jr.
Blowout for road team
Carson Wentz
Jonathan Taylor, Nyheim Hines
Michael Pittman Jr., Zach Pascal, Parris Campbell
Jack Doyle, Mo Alie-Cox
Colts defense
Lamar Jackson
Mark Andrews
Marquise Brown
Cheap/Unique Stacking Option
Traditional stacks such as QB/WR1 or WR2, QB/TE, and RB/DEF are stacks seen used in winning lineups. The obvious choice is not always the winning choice. Below is a cheap stack with at least one unique quality that could break the slate
Latavius Murray ($14) and Ravens defense ($13)
Pricing is great if the goal is to roster as many high-priced options as possible. Murray will be facing a top-10 rush defense according to aFPA but saw a season-high 18 carries Week 4. He is a zero in the passing game which is where the Ravens defense comes in. RB1/DST correlate well and with the Colts offensive line in flux, the Ravens defense will be pinning their ears back and getting after Carson Wentz.
Low-Salary Volatile Plays
Mo Alie-Cox ($13)
Week 4 was the culmination of Indy’s increased inclusion of MAC. He had season-highs in targets, receptions, yards, and touchdowns. The Ravens are 20th in aFPA to opposing tight ends and the Colts are expected to be trailing.
Devonta Freeman ($10)
A positive game script gives Freeman an entry into this game as a rush-specific back. If Baltimore wants to preserve Latavius Murray with a big lead Freeman will see work.
Kylen Granson ($10)
The cries for MAC to see more work have been met some by the love for the rookie Granson. He almost doubled his routes run in Week 4 (14) compared to what he had run the previous three weeks (8). Those 14 routes were the most by a Colts tight end.
Ty'Son Williams ($16)
Williams was a healthy scratch Week 4 and is in the Ravens’ doghouse. If he were made active, he would have the ability to contribute in the pass and run game. He is by far their best back when active ... and trusted.
Superstar Picks
Lamar Jackson ($36)
Jackson is the Alpha and Omega in the Ravens offense and is not cost-prohibitive in the Yahoo salary structure. He will be the most popular Superstar pick.
Jonathan Taylor ($25)
His usage and role with the Colts make him vital in every game script. Taylor’s biggest drawback is Nyheim Hines’ role in the passing game.
Marquise Brown ($21)
Colts CB Xavier Rhodes turned back into a parking cone and Rock Ya-Sin is out. There is no other player who can stay with Brown in the Colts secondary. Sammy Watkins is seeing the same number of targets but Brown is nearly doubling his fantasy production.
Zach Pascal ($16)
Pittman is deserving of his flowers as the WR1 in Indy, but Pascal is vital to their red-zone success. Coming into Week 5, Pascal was tied for the second-most red-zone targets (9), touchdowns (3), and was tied for second with 50% of his red-zone targets inside the 10-yard line.
This article originally appeared in its full form on 4for4.com
Jeff has played fantasy sports since 2001. He has covered fantasy and traditional sports at the pro, semi-pro, and amateur level for the better part of a decade. Born in Illinois and currently living where James Robinson made a name for himself in college, Jeff enjoys running (establish it), followed by doing absolutely nothing.
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