NBA Finals Preview: Golden State Warriors v Cleveland Cavaliers
When it comes to the Finals, you want the two best teams and this is exactly what we’ve got. Since January both the Cavs and the Warriors have set the bar both offensively and defensively and will now provide the fans with the star-laden match-up that will not only make for great TV, but for two success stricken franchises, an opportunity to re-write their success narrative.
Let’s take a look at what we can expect from the Finals and the X’s and O’s that will separate these teams.
Key Factors
Three-point shooting
The Warriors and Cavs finished the playoffs first and second in three-point attempts, but the Cavs don’t want to get into a shoot-out with the Dubs.
Whilst Steph Curry and his trigger-happy teammates have set the bar for how to make three-pointers the ultimate threat, the Cavs have been sneakily phenomenal at defending the three-point line. They have held teams to 28 per cent on threes this post-season (per NBA.com), impressive, but a lot of that is accounted for in the Hawks forgetting how to shoot for four games.
That said, Iman Shumpert, Kyrie Irving, Matthew Dellavedova and JR Smith must navigate through/around the bruising screens of Andrew Bogut and Draymond Green and prevent the Warriors' shooters getting open looks...exhausting but essential.
The Benches
The Cavs don’t have a deep rotation like the Warriors, but their role players have shown that they can consistently deliver in big moments. J.R. Smith and Delly are playing out of their skin this post-season and the Cavs will need that to continue when the likes of Shaun Livingston, Leandro Barbosa and Andre Iguodala hit the floor. The Warriors bench unit pushes the pace, attacks the rim and plays great transition defence, so the Cavs second unit will be pushed to keep things ticking over and not let the Warriors bench build a lead and force the Cavs to bring their starters back too soon.
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Who loves Small Ball the most?
Both teams have played some of their best ball with smaller line-ups this season. The Warriors using Draymond Green pushing the break playing centre and causing matchup nightmares for opponents has been similarly enjoyed by the Cavs playing LeBron at power forward surrounded by shooters and protected by Tristan Thompson.
When and how often the coaches go to these lineups will have a huge impact on the style of basketball played in the Finals.
Tristan Thompson
This should probably be a match-up, but he has been so good, he gets his own spot here.
The vanquisher of Eastern Conference power forwards, TT’s power grows with each offensive rebound and high-energy hustle play. He is simply a handful to deal with. If he can continue his “I’m about to get paid” contract year level of performance, the Cavs will control the glass and the tempo. Draymond Green gives away a lot of size in this match-up, but dragging TT away from the hoop with his three-point shooting and limiting the amount of boards he gathers will be priority no. 1 for Green.
The injured Kevin Love's shooting, floor-spacing ability and rebounding should be missed a lot more and be more of a problem for the Cavs, but Thompson has stepped up greatly in his absence.
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Key Matchups
LeBron James v Harrison Barnes/Draymond Green/Andre Iguodala
It really takes a village to stop the King...Well slow down the King.
The Warriors are gifted with the luxury of multiple long wing defenders who can run with LeBron James and all three of these guys will spend some time attempting to force LeBron James to beat them with his jumper. If LeBron gets in that rhythm where he just barges to the rim and forces the Warriors defence to collapse on him, he will cause havoc either scoring or finding open shooters. His playmaking this post-season has been nothing short of spectacular.
Per NBA.com, LeBron averages more drives (14.7) per game and points off drives (18.3 points per game) than anyone in the league. Memo: make LeBron shoot the ball.
That said the Warriors defence works best like a foosball table, all five guys together moving as one, sending secondary help defenders and clean rotations to block James’ path to the hoop. It won’t be easy, but this is arguably the best-equipped team to do so.
Barnes will get the lion’s share of minutes against LeBron and has proven to be both a good on ball defender and more than capable defending switches and bigger guys. He will need help, but who doesn’t.
Kyrie Irving v Steph Curry
Arguably the two most entertaining point guards in the league will face off in a cat and mouse game of baiting each other with a litany of dribble-moves, slick finishes and offensive mastery. The real key here is how Irving deals with guarding Curry in the pick and roll and secondly how hard he makes Curry work on defence.
The only time Curry has been challenged this post-season with an assignment was facing Mike Conley, a small sample size, but Conley forced Curry to expend energy on the defensive end as opposed to the pedestrian stroll he took against the Pelicans and Rockets. Irving is a nightmare to defend one-on-one, so how Curry neutralises him will go along way for the Dubs.
Kyrie isn’t 100 per cent healthy, but a week off after looking relatively good against Atlanta could change that. Whether he is able to hang with Curry in one-on-one situations is another thing.
Don't be surprised if the Cavs throw Shumpert at Curry or even LeBron and switch Kyrie on to Harrison Barnes.
Wildcards
J.R. Smith
He can get you 28 points off 8-12 shooting from three, or he can get suspended for two games for a cheap shot.
J.R. can win you a quarter or a game as quickly as he can lose you one and thankfully for the Cavs, we have seen more good J.R. than bad this post-season. As one of he league’s streakiest shooters, momentum is his middle name and in a series against the three-point loving Warriors, his “when in doubt, shoot the ball” mentality may be called upon more often.
Draymond Green
When Draymond is good, the Warriors are great.
His value transcends the box score, his flexibility is a coaches dream and his commitment to defence is the perfect formula for winning. Offensively Green can contribute from the perimeter and force defences to sag off other guys, freeing up Curry and Klay Thompson more than any team would want to.
Aussie Watch
Andrew Bogut has been fantastic this post-season, whether its crushing blocks, picking passing lanes, setting bone shattering screens to free Steph Curry three-pointer after Steph Curry three-pointer, he has simple been invaluable. His defence will be needed against Timofey Mozgov in the pick and roll as well as protecting the rim from the LeBron Express.
Matthew Dellavedova is playing career-best ball right now and his pesky, ‘I will annoy you until you lose the will to play basketball’ defence will be a big part of slowing the Warriors potent bench unit. Don’t sleep on his offence either. Delly is shooting the three-pointer at 40 per cent and has picked his spots superbly this post-season.
Home Court
The Warriors have home court and they’ve won 46 out of 49 home games in front of the most raucous crowd in the NBA this season. LeBron also doesn’t really care and finds a way to come into your building and steal a game no matter what.
Prediction: Warriors in 7