Avdiivka’s ultimate fate to become clear soon


The Avdiivka spoil tip, which the Russians were so eager to access, is not a mine but a waste dump. It has a flat surface, a rolled top. Trucks brought loads of mining waste there one at a time. It is a giant landfill, I would call it that. But it is still growing into a real waste heap. It is located to the north of Avdiivka coke plant.

This waste dump does not shelter the Russians from mortars or other rounds, and certainly does not shelter them from cluster munitions. By the way, we mowed down quite a serious number of Russians with 155 mm cluster munitions in the area of the slag heap. They stick there like flies to honey. Eventually, a certain number of shells arrive and sweep away these flies in one fell swoop. The next brigade comes in, or the next battalion. They run to this heap again and plant a flag. It was there for half a day, and they shot it down. However, I wouldn't even waste a drone. It's a shame to waste it on that rag. That's why this slag heap is more of a symbolic place for the Russians, nothing more.

Russians are not interested in it for military communication. It could be relevant because the Avdiivka coke plant is not far away. But the coke plant itself is a fortified area. Therefore, in principle, the presence of our troops on the spoil heap also makes them vulnerable to attack. That is, our troops can perform any defensive tasks without it. It remains in the gray zone. The fact that the Russians ran up there and try to hold it means nothing. Their central combat positions are to the north-east of this slag heap. That is why there is more information noise than action.

The real problems are not here. The real problems the Russians are creating are to the northwest and southwest of Avdiivka, trying to encircle the northwest from Krasnohorivka and the southwest from Vodyane. So these are the problems that the Ukrainian forces are fighting now, destroying the Russians.

Until the rains, they have a window of opportunity to carry out offensive actions

Over the last couple of days, the intensity of Russian attacks has dropped. A week ago, I said they had about a week and a half worth of so-called army ammunition. They've practically used it up. Now, they're waiting for the next shipment. And we are already starting to work on the logistical supply chain. That is why the fighting has now decreased by a factor of two, although attempts by the Russians to bombard Avdiivka with rocket-propelled grenades remain high.

In other words, aviation has been working intensively. The only problem they have is with ammunition. The question is whether they will increase it and continue their offensive actions or whether they can calm down and return at the expense of our actions on the left bank of the Dnieper, realizing that this is a long game and they may simply not be able to withstand it. This will become clear in the next couple of days. If a new batch of ammunition is brought in, then the attacks will continue.

The Russians are reducing troop density in the Luhansk area, realizing they have nothing to gain strategically. Rains are ahead. This direction is a torn piece for the fall and winter periods. That's why they don't need these units there. Since they have decided to strengthen the Avdiivka direction, these forces will definitely be redeployed there. There is information that some units from the Donetsk direction are also moving to the Kherson direction. At least, such a transfer has begun. The Kupyansk-Kreminna direction (part of the Lugansk direction) will now also decline (Russian offensive actions).

The likelihood that these units will be transferred to Avdiivka does not necessarily mean it is to strengthen offensive operations. There is a big question about defense there, among other things. The Russians are spreading out. Yes, they are trying to encircle from the south, they are trying to encircle from the north, and they are sagging in the area of Spartak and DAP. If we throw a couple of Ukrainian assault brigades over there now, we can even reach DAP on the Russian counterattack. Everything will depend on the availability of resources. They may be moving troops to hold the entire front line. Because they are advancing in two directions, and the third one is sagging.

This southern direction has been sagging for at least six months. They are trying to encircle Avdiivka, but the central avenue of attack from Donetsk is failing. For some reason, they think that we will not move towards Donetsk. They have this confidence. They have already lost a part of Opytne once after removing units from the central Donetsk direction and moving them north of Avdivka near Krasnohorivka. They practically opened a front, and our troops took advantage of it. It may be the same because these units from the Luhansk direction can strengthen these defensive positions.

Read also: What went wrong with Russia's major offensive on Avdiivka

We are waiting and watching. If the Russians bring in a certain number of shells, this movement towards Avdiivka will continue, at least until severe rains. Until the rains, they have a window of opportunity to carry out offensive actions. After intense rains, it will be impossible to move through the fields there. During the fall and winter periods, the black earth of Donetsk is very muddy. There is also clay soil in some positions. You can burrow up to your head and not move anywhere. That's why, I think, they are in a hurry. Now, they will decide whether to continue on Avdiivka or calm down and somehow go into a defensive mode.

Our readers have noticed that the Russians are repeating such a technique as covering with ticks, which we saw in Severodonetsk, Bakhmut, and now with Avdiivka. Indeed, pincers are a standard technique for squeezing the enemy out of a fortified area. That is, semi-envelopment and further operational control of ammunition supply chains to a half-encircled or already encircled garrison with the help of artillery. This is a standard tactic; all armies have used it for several hundred years.

How is the AFU countering these Avdiivka pincers? Support is coming. Those batteries of our long-range artillery, which stand in the area of the Karlovsky reservoir, reach Avdiivka and do not allow the Russians to close the pincers, do not allow them to move westward. A wall of artillery fire prevents the Russians from carrying out any activities. We also have skilled snipers at a range of 25-30 kilometers. They cut off the Russians, driving them into disadvantageous positions and sometimes driving them into minefields. We've been fighting there for ten years – every bush there has been shot at. The defense line there built up competently and correctly.

The issue is the situation as it stands at the moment - the availability of forces and funds to reinforce certain positions. To hold the wall of fire, you need sufficient ammunition. The question is: do we have it or not? Based on this (but only Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, the AFU commander-in-chief, and the General Staff command know about it), decisions will be made on some kind of movement; on reinforcement, or withdrawal. There is a direct correlation with the amount of ammunition and equipment.

Lately, the Russians have gotten gray hair again in Donetsk, because Bradley and Leopards are already at Avdiivka. This is serious equipment. Bradleys work against any tank. They have already hit dozens of them there. ATGM is an excellent anti-tank missile. Leopard tanks fulfill their task of hitting Russian equipment and defenses. If that's true, that means reinforcements have arrived. They showed up after Zaluzhnyi arrived. Most likely, a decision was made to reinforce, which means that equipment and ammunition came in. Therefore, almost 900 Russians are killed in the Avdiivka area per day. Now, thousands of Russians have already been unpacked and sent away. They are no longer lingering in morgues; there is nowhere to store them.

Read also: Grueling battle for Avdiivka

Our decision on Avdiivka will depend on the availability of forces and means, and General Zaluzhnyi knows what to do. If you look at the entire front line, Avdiivka has tied up several thousand Russians and is pulling more brigades on itself. It is tying up more and more Russian reserves. Or not even reserves anymore, since they are withdrawing them from under Kreminna and Kupyansk. These units have already been in contact with each other in combat, and any unit after combat contact loses half of its power. Plus, they will not appear in the Kherson direction. That's what we can see now.

Zaluzhnyi stretched the Russians along the 1200 kilometers front, and is now performing operations on the left bank of the Kherson region. The Russians have everything tied up in the east, and they will not move anything to the left bank. We are following the development of the situation on the left bank. There are good prospects there.

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