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Ben Sutton: The run home

Sportal Updated August 26, 2012, 9:55 pm

1. '''Hawthorn'''

64 points (16 wins, five losses) 155.38 percent

The run home:

West Coast (MCG)

Hawthorn's magnificent win over Sydney on Saturday has them well placed to secure the minor premiership for the first time since 1989. They head into the final round with a healthy percentage advantage over the Swans and only need to beat West Coast at the MCG to ensure they finish top. But a loss could see them drop to as low as third and in interstate final first up.

Projected: 17-5 (first)
2. '''Sydney Swans'''

64 points (16 wins, five losses) 145.81 percent

The run home:

Geelong (Simonds Stadium)

Sydney's loss to Hawthorn has not only cost them top spot, but also could see them drop out of the top two and a home qualifying final. The Swans face a tough final match against the Cats in Geelong with a loss likely to send them down to third and a trip to Adelaide in the first week of the finals.

Projected: 16-6 (third)

3. '''Adelaide'''

64 points (16 wins, five losses) 128.46 percent

The run home:

Gold Coast (AAMI Stadium)

Adelaide comfortably took care of Melbourne on Sunday to returning to winning ways after their surprise loss to Brisbane the week before. This week's clash against Gold Coast is elementary, but they will need a slip-up from either Hawthorn or Sydney to secure a home final in the first week. A qualifying final against Sydney looks likely with the venue to be determined by the Swans' clash with Geelong.

Projected: 17-5 (second)

4. '''West Coast'''

60 points (15 wins, six losses) 126.99 percent

The run home:

Hawthorn (MCG)

West Coast reminded us they are still a premiership threat with a stirring win over Collingwood on Saturday night. They are back in the top four and can guarantee themselves a double chance with victory against Hawthorn on Friday night in a finals dress rehearsal. But that might be a task too hard with a loss likely to see hem drop to fifth, although they will still get a home final.

Projected: 15-7 (fifth)
5. '''Collingwood'''

60 points (15 wins, six losses) 115.31 percent

The run home:

Essendon (MCG)

For the first time since midway through the 2010 season, Collingwood have lost two games in a row and have now dropped out of the top four. More worryingly for the Magpies is the fact they have been completely outplayed in the past fortnight. Nevertheless they should head into the finals on the back of a win against Essendon and should reclaim the double chance assuming the Eagles lose to the Hawks.

Projected: 16-6 (fourth)

6. '''Geelong'''

56 points (14 wins, seven losses), 115.98 percent

The run home:

Sydney Swans (Simonds Stadium)

Geelong did what was required of them in beating the Western Bulldogs on Sunday, but must win against the Swans to guarantee themselves a first final in Melbourne. Lose and they could drop to as low as eighth with a potential trip to Perth. But the reigning premiers don't lose too often at home and we expect them to continue their winning form heading into September.

Projected: 15-7 (sixth)

7. '''Fremantle'''

52 points (13 wins, eight losses) 112.36 percent

The run home:
Melbourne (Patersons Stadium)

Fremantle secured their place in the finals with a cracking win over North Melbourne and will head into September full of confidence with another belting against Melbourne on the cards in the final round. If Geelong lose then a big win will be necessary to maintain their small percentage advantage over the Roos, but if the Cats win and also West Coast lose then it could be more beneficial for Freo to drop to eighth so they can play the Eagles at Patersons Stadium.

Projected: 14-8 (eighth)

8. '''North Melbourne'''

52 points (13 wins, eight losses), 115.20 percent

The run home:
Greater Western Sydney (Skoda Stadium)

The Kangaroos' hopes of a home final took a big hit with their loss to the Dockers on Sunday. They can still finish sixth if Geelong lose and they gain enough percentage to edge ahead of Fremantle. They will be desperate to defeat GWS by as much as possible to avoid finishing eighth and a potential trip to Perth with a first-up final against the Cats looking most likely.

Projected: 14-7 (seventh)

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3 Comments

  1. the8thdwf06:08am Monday 27th August 2012 ESTReport Abuse

    Sadly Jeff the Tigers theme song sounds something like this....Like the Tigers of old, we'll miss the Finals again, we come from Ti-ger land.....

    Reply
  2. winp11:15am Monday 13th August 2012 ESTReport Abuse

    i agree hawks will finish a very clear second and then move on to take premiership cup comfortablely,thats my opinion.go hawks.

    Reply
  3. Jeffrey10:54am Monday 13th August 2012 ESTReport Abuse

    and yet again, my team Richmond, misses out on finals by losing quite a few winnable games...oh well, as they say, 'maybe next year'.....

    Reply
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