Week 14 NFL picks, predictions

Week 14 NFL picks, predictions

It's another week of crucial matchups with playoff implications, many of which are overshadowed by increasingly typical NFL messiness. Hey, it’s only the final month of the season, why not have it be dominated by nonsense?

Monday was something ... special. The Giants hosed out the stables with the firings of their head coach and general manager and the reinstatement of their franchise quarterback. Rob Gronkowski got served his medicine for his blatantly cheap shot on the Bills' Tre’davious White. The Steelers and Bengals got into a free-for-all, most of which took place after Ryan Shazier had to be taken off the field on a backboard.

So, put asterisks on the five games those teams play in Week 14, particularly the Steelers’ showdown with another fierce division rivals, the Ravens. And try to enjoy the normal, on-field drama elsewhere.

MORE: Week 14 NFL picks against the spread

1
New Orleans Saints (9-3) at Atlanta Falcons (7-5), Thursday, 8:25 p.m., NBC/NFLN/Amazon Prime

This is one of the best and most critical Thursday night matchups we’ve seen all season, yet the game and the teams would be better off not playing it on short rest. The Falcons risk falling out of sight in the division and wild-card race if they lose. Despite the result against the Vikings, they’re better off with Devonta Freeman back from his concussion. Absolutely nobody has been able to stop Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram lately, including the Panthers’ defense last week, so unless the Falcons defense can play over their heads, they’re in trouble.

Prediction: Saints, 33-21

2
Minnesota Vikings (10-2) at Carolina Panthers (8-4), Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS

The Vikings are trying to pull off a sweep of the Rams, Falcons and Panthers in a four-week span, the last two on the road. If they do, they’ll have the kind of resume Ohio State and Alabama would envy. While the drumbeat for Case Keenum is not undeserved, it's past time the defense (which held the Rams and Falcons to single digits) got its due credit for this run. Cam Newton could use Greg Olsen this week, because his absence last week against the Saints was glaring.

Prediction: Vikings, 26-17

3
Oakland Raiders (6-6) at Kansas City Chiefs (6-6), Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS

That wild, 31-30, final-play win by the Raiders over the Chiefs at Oakland in October seemed important in the moment, and seven weeks later, it’s looking like everything. A Raiders win in KC now might be the nail in the Chiefs’ coffin, and it could reduce the AFC West to a two-team race (depending on what the Chargers do). Getting Michael Crabtree back helps the Raiders; believing Darrelle Revis would help an increasingly-porous defense doesn't help the Chiefs.

Prediction: Raiders, 30-26

4
Indianapolis Colts (3-9) at Buffalo Bills (6-6), Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS

Once again, an example of why you can't just throw games away. Maybe the Bills would have beaten the Chargers with Tyrod Taylor, maybe they wouldn’t have. But in hindsight, with Taylor day-to-day with a knee injury from the Patriots game, they’re stuck with two bad decisions: playing him hurt or playing a still-raw Nathan Peterman in a game they can’t afford to lose. In their defense, the Colts get worse every week, so it may be moot.

Prediction: Bills, 18-10

5
Dallas Cowboys (6-6) at New York Giants (2-10), Sunday, 1 p.m., Fox

The circus sets up its tents at MetLife Stadium, and for once, the Cowboys are not the main act. Not only that, but the Cowboys are the more stable of the teams facing off. The Sunday night opener seems like a million years ago: Remember when the big problem was whether the Giants could string together a few scores while Odell Beckham Jr. rehabbed from his preseason injury? Eli Manning returns from one of the all-time most pointless benchings, amazing considering the recent competition includes Peterman-for-Tyrod.

Prediction: Cowboys, 27-13

6
Detroit Lions (6-6) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-8), Sunday, 1 p.m., Fox

Matthew Stafford had a brilliant second half going in Baltimore last week before he hurt his throwing hand. If this goes the way of his injured thumb in the final week of last season, the Lions can count on watching the playoffs this time instead of slipping in at the end. Having said that, the Bucs looked barely better with a healed Jameis Winston last week than they had without him, and that has bad short- and long-term implications for him, the franchise and coach Dirk Koetter.

Prediction: Lions, 31-17

7
San Francisco 49ers (2-10) at Houston Texans (4-8), Sunday, 1 p.m., Fox

There couldn't have been a better stretch for the 49ers to start the Jimmy Garoppolo era — the Bears and, now, the Texans. Garoppolo engineered a win without a touchdown in Chicago last week, and that’s possible in Houston, too. Of all quarterbacks who have started at least half their teams’ games, the only ones with lower passer ratings than Tom Savage (71.8) are Brett Hundley and DeShone Kizer. This is for Garoppolo-watchers only.

Prediction: Texans, 17-13

8
Green Bay Packers (6-6) at Cleveland Browns (0-12), Sunday, 1 p.m., Fox

This is expected to be the Packers’ last game without Aaron Rodgers, and besides getting through his absence on a high note and staying in playoff contention, avoiding being “the one” against the Browns gives the Packers all the incentive they need. They actually turned in a more impressive performance in losing to the Steelers a week earlier than in beating the Bucs last week. This is a defense against which Josh Gordon could do even more damage than he did in his comeback game, but he’d need a better quarterback to make it happen.

Prediction: Packers, 28-16

9
Chicago Bears (3-9) at Cincinnati Bengals (5-7), Sunday, 1 p.m., Fox

It was hard to believe the Bears were 3-4 at one point, and even harder to believe now, with five straight losses since. Speaking of hard to believe: how Marvin Lewis has kept his job this long while fielding year-in and year-out the most undisciplined team in the league. The underwhelming, underachieving play by both teams is a bad enough omen for this game, but the Bengals continuing to act out makes this unworthy of watching.

Prediction: Bengals, 23-19

10
Washington Redskins (5-7) at Los Angeles Chargers (6-6), Sunday, 4:05 p.m., CBS

The Chargers have won all three of their home games (with their nonexistent home-field advantage) in their run of six wins in eight games. Their offense has only had to not ruin things for their defense ... but that could change against Washington, which somehow allowed depleted Dallas’ offense to get better last Thursday. Washington also is scraping the bottom of its roster barrel on its offensive line, and this is one of the last teams they need to see in that situation.

Prediction: Chargers, 30-16

11
New York Jets (5-7) at Denver Broncos (3-9), Sunday, 4:05 p.m., CBS

The Jets can smirk at all the predictions about tanking and going winless, but they’ll also have to live with the chances they let get away, and the bad breaks they got, that might have them in playoff contention. This is a good break, though; the Broncos are hopeless at quarterback, and as long as that continues, they have almost no chance of beating anybody.

Prediction: Jets, 28-10

12
Tennessee Titans (8-4) at Arizona Cardinals (5-7), Sunday, 4:05 p.m., CBS

The Titans quietly have won six of seven to thrust themselves into the AFC South title race, feasting on inferior teams with largely feeble offenses ... and masking a bad stretch by Marcus Mariota (six interceptions in two games before avoiding one last week against the Texans). The Cardinals are just trying to make the end of the season satisfying for Larry Fitzgerald, the last player they have who opponents should fear this season.

Prediction: Titans, 24-17

13
Philadelphia Eagles (10-2) at Los Angeles Rams (9-3), Sunday, 4:25 p.m., Fox

Part II of the Eagles’ reputation-testing West Coast trip, this time against a Rams team with an offense harder to stop than Seattle’s and a defense that’s healthier. That defense is what Carson Wentz and the Eagles have to worry about, especially after being held without a touchdown for more than a half in Seattle on Sunday night. The Rams, meanwhile, are the only team that has defeated the Saints over the last two months. Winner gains a vital edge of its home field should they play each other again.

Prediction: Rams, 33-23

14
Seattle Seahawks (8-4) at Jacksonville Jaguars (8-4), Sunday, 4:25 p.m., Fox

The Seahawks might want to consider hiring armed guards to protect Russell Wilson from the Jaguars’ pass rush ... except, Wilson has a knack for survival that’s unrivaled this season. Logic dictates that Pete Carroll and defensive coordinator Kris Richard should be able to dial up something to keep Blaine Gabbert in check, but keeping Leonard Fournette in check is another story. This is a supreme test for both teams.

Prediction: Jaguars, 24-23

15
Baltimore Ravens (7-5) at Pittsburgh Steelers (10-2), Sunday, 8:30 p.m., NBC

It’s hard to imagine there won’t still be a cloud of gloom hanging over this game by Sunday night, after Ryan Shazier’s injury Monday night. The Steelers have a short week to recover physically and emotionally. They might also have to compensate for JuJu Smith-Schuster in case the league makes him pay for his hit and taunt on Vontaze Burfict. The Ravens go in without Jimmy Smith at corner, which, Smith-Schuster or not, is never good when Antonio Brown is on the other side.

Prediction: Steelers, 23-20

16
New England Patriots (10-2) at Miami Dolphins (5-7), Monday, 8:30 p.m., ESPN

There will be no Gronk for the Patriots as he rests his injury-prone body for the showdown with the Steelers … that is, sits out his one-game suspension. Depending on what the Bills do Sunday, the Patriots could be playing to put the AFC East out of its misery for the ninth straight year, extending their NFL record streak. Don’t expect the Dolphins to put up much of a fight.

Prediction: Patriots, 30-17