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NBA Finals: Biggest deciding factors for Game 4 of Cavs vs. Warriors

We have arrived at the final stop. After 77 playoff games, we could see the Warriors capture the Larry O'Brien trophy Friday night in Cleveland.

After a comeback victory against the Cavs in Game 3, the Warriors are one win away from completing a perfect 16-0 postseason sweep, the first in NBA history. Golden State finished Game 3 on an 11-0 run, including a clutch Kevin Durant 3-pointer in transition to give the Warriors the lead for good.

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Cleveland threw everything but the kitchen sink at Golden State in Game 3 — actually, the Cavs threw the kitchen sink, the bathroom sink and every sink in Bed, Bath and Beyond. It still wasn't enough. LeBron James' efficient 39/11/9 line and Kyrie Irving's 38 points on 16-of-29 shooting kept it close until that deciding run shut the door on Game 3 — and likely the Cavs' season.

So, what happens next? Can the Cavs push this series to Game 5? Or will the Warriors prevail and avenge last year's 3-1 collapse? Here are a few important factors that may decide this contest.


Cavs: Get the "Big Three" on the same page


As mentioned above, James and Irving were spectacular for much of Game 3. While Kevin Love showed tremendous effort with 13 rebounds (four offensive) and six steals, he was 1 of 9 from the field in 37 minutes.

Back in Game 2, James posted a triple-double, and Love started 4 of 5 from the field on the way to 27 points. Irving had 19 points on 8-of-23 shooting and looked out of sync for a large portion of the game. It certainly wasn't the best version of the All-Star guard.

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If the Cavs want to win Game 4 (or even keep it close), they'll need their "Big Three" to leave an imprint on this one. It may take a near-impossible performance, like when the trio scored 101 of the Cavs' 125 points on March 19 against the Lakers. Role players such as J.R. Smith and Tristan Thompson (more on him later) will need to produce, but the stars must shine bright Friday night.

If all of that sounds unreasonable, well, it is. We're talking about arguably the greatest team of all time on the other side.


Cavs: Close the 3-point gap


Shooting was always going to play a huge part in deciding this series, as the Cavs and Warriors are two of three teams in NBA history to make over 1,000 3-pointers in a single season (the Rockets set the record earlier this year). Cleveland (38.4 percent) and Golden State (38.3 percent) finished second and third, respectively, in 3-point shooting behind the Spurs (39.1 percent) during the 2016-17 regular season.

But the NBA Finals have been a different story. The Cavs have shot only 29.8 percent from 3-point range while the Warriors have hit 42.2 percent of their attempts from deep. Irving, Love and Kyle Korver are all well under their career averages.

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It's easy to look at those numbers and give credit to the Warriors for staying active defensively. That's only part of the problem, though. According to NBA.com tracking data, the Cavs are 9 of 30 on wide-open 3-pointers (no defender within six feet) and 11 of 46 when a defender is within four to six feet.

Klay Thompson has done an incredible job challenging Irving in one-on-one situations. Durant can guard just about every position on the floor. Draymond Green is the best defender in the NBA. It's possible to accept all of that and still point out the Cavs have missed shots they normally make. They can't afford to miss many more if they want to stay alive.

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Cavs: Hey Tristan Thompson, wake up!


The sixth-year forward has been invisible through three games. Thompson has as many total rebounds (11) as Irving and one point less (eight) than Dahntay Jones despite playing 59 more minutes than Jones. That's... not great.

Warriors star Stephen Curry, who is averaging 9.7 rebounds per game in the finals, explained how Zaza Pachulia has prevented Thompson from giving the Cavs those precious extra possessions.

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"The biggest thing I think is just from the start of the game Zaza's done a great job of just trying to be physical with him," Curry said Thursday. "They have had some tussle matches, some over-the-back calls here, some loose-ball fouls here, like all sorts of stuff going on. But just a presence knowing that he can't have any straight-line runs to the rim to try to clean up the glass.

"And just make him think, I guess. That's kind of my best guess at this point just of Zaza just being that force early when he's in the game. And I think we have done a good job of trying to keep him out there whenever Tristan's in the game to keep him off the glass"

Thompson's total rebounding percentage has dropped from 16.9 in the regular season to 8.4 in the finals, and his offensive rebounding percentage has seen a similar dip from 14.0 to 8.5. He won't suddenly turn into a scorer with Cleveland's season on the line, so he needs to get back to basics. Attack the glass for rebounds, alter passes and shots on defense and be the hardest worker on the floor.


Warriors: Keep being the Warriors


Yep, that's about it.

When determining the deciding factors in the previous two games, there were certain areas where it was easy to see Golden State could improve despite coming out on top. At this point, however, there's no reason to waste any extra time formulating some sort of in-depth explanation. The Warriors are the better team, and they've played like it.


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Durant could finish a series sweep with 55/50/90 shooting splits. Curry may average a triple-double and not miss a single free throw. Golden State is averaging 31.4 assists per game in the finals, a mark that would top its regular-season average of 30.4, best in the NBA. Add in elite defense, and it's no surprise we've arrived at 3-0.

The Warriors are a basketball Death Star, but they covered the hole that can destroy the ship. They have left zero doubt. A championship feels inevitable now.