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2021 MLB win totals: The Giants were the biggest overachiever and it wasn't even close

Nick Bromberg
·College football and motorsports writer
·4-min read

The San Francisco Giants exceeded their preseason win expectations more than any other team in baseball.

The Giants beat the San Diego Padres on Sunday to win the NL West with a record of 107-55. San Francisco won the division by a game over the rival Los Angeles Dodgers as no one else in the National League won over 100 games.

No one else came close to San Francisco when it came to beating its preseason win total either. The Giants' over/under at BetMGM ahead of the season was at 75.5 wins. San Francisco ended up topping that total by a crazy 31.5 games.

Here's some context on that stat. The Giants entered the season tied with the Arizona Diamondbacks for the third-highest win total in the West. The Dodgers' win total was the highest in baseball at 102.5 while the Padres' win total was at 94.5 following offseason additions in anticipation of a playoff run.

The Padres finished at 79-83.

No other team exceeded its preseason win total by more than 17.5 games. The Seattle Mariners were the American League's biggest overachiever despite missing the playoffs. The Mariners finished a game out of the Wild Card at 90-72 following a final day loss to the Los Angeles Angels. The Mariners' preseason win total was at 72.5.

Arizona and Washington go way under

While the Giants overachieved, the Diamondbacks were baseball's biggest underachievers. The Diamondbacks finished tied with the Baltimore Orioles for the worst record in MLB at 52-110. Arizona missed out on its preseason win total by 23.5 games.

The Washington Nationals weren't far behind at 19.5 games under their preseason win total after a midseason fire sale. The 2019 World Series champions entered the season with a win total of 84.5. But the Nats finished at 65-97 after trading key pieces like Max Scherzer and Trea Turner.

The American League's biggest underachievers were the Minnesota Twins. Minnesota finished last in the AL Central at 73-89. The Twins' preseason win total was 87.5 and the second-highest in the Central behind the Chicago White Sox. Baltimore was 12.5 games under its preseason win total. Not even oddsmakers could fathom just how bad the Orioles were going to be in 2021.

Teams that cut it close

The Kansas City Royals made bettors sweat more than any other team in 2021. The Royals beat the Twins on Saturday and lost on Sunday to finish the season at 74-88. KC had a preseason win total of 73.5. That Saturday win was a pivotal one for bettors with Royals tickets.

Both the Cincinnati Reds and Philadelphia Phillies surpassed their win totals by 1.5 games. Cincinnati finished the season at 83-79 and Philadelphia was at 82-80.

Cleveland and Oakland both came up 1.5 games short. Cleveland finished the season at 80-82 while the Athletics finished at 86-76.

Here's how every MLB team did against its preseason win total this season. Sixteen teams went over while 14 teams went under.

How every team fared against their total

American League East

  1. Tampa Bay 100-62 OVER by 13.5 games

  2. Boston 92-70 OVER by 12.5

  3. New York 92-70 UNDER by 3.5

  4. Toronto 91-71 OVER by 4.5

  5. Baltimore 52-110 UNDER by 12.5

American League Central

  1. Chicago 93-69 OVER by 2.5

  2. Cleveland 80-82 UNDER by 1.5

  3. Detroit 77-85 OVER by 7.5

  4. Kansas City 74-88 OVER by 0.5

  5. Minnesota 73-89 UNDER by 14.5

American League West

  1. Houston 95-67 OVER by 7.5

  2. Seattle 90-72 OVER by 17.5

  3. Oakland 86-76 UNDER by 1.5

  4. Angels 77-85 UNDER by 6.5

  5. Texas 60-102 UNDER by 7.5

National League East

  1. Atlanta 88-73 UNDER by 3.5

  2. Philadelphia 82-80 OVER by 1.5

  3. New York 77-85 UNDER by 13.5

  4. Miami 67-95 UNDER by 2.5

  5. Washington 65-97 UNDER by 19.5

National League Central

  1. Milwaukee 95-67 OVER by 11.5

  2. St. Louis 90-72 OVER by 3.5

  3. Cincinnati 83-79 OVER by 1.5

  4. Chicago 71-91 UNDER by 6.5

  5. Pittsburgh 61-101 OVER by 2.5

National League West

  1. San Francisco 107-55 OVER by 31.5

  2. Los Angeles 106-56 OVER by 3.5

  3. San Diego 79-83 UNDER by 15.5

  4. Colorado 74-87 OVER by 10.5

  5. Arizona 52-110 UNDER by 23.5