Sit and start is relative and league dependent, so consider some of these suggestions more “fliers” and “fades” (note that some are targeted for DFS).
Good luck with your Week 13 lineups.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Start: Ronald Jones, Dede Westbrook
Jones remains in a timeshare but has scored in three of the last four games and gets a Jacksonville run defense that ranks dead last in DVOA.
Westbrook has been a disappointment, but he did see nine targets last week. He should continue to benefit from having a QB in Nick Foles who throws to the slot frequently and faces a funnel Bucs defense that checks in first against the run and 25th versus the pass in DVOA. No team has allowed more fantasy points to the slot (where Westbrook has aligned 86 percent of the time) this season (and over the last month) than Tampa Bay.
Green Bay Packers @ New York Giants
Start in DFS: Davante Adams ($31), Saquon Barkley ($30)
Adams is a bit of a risk given his toe injury may not fully heal until the offseason, but he claims he’s feeling much better now and continues to be targeted as heavily as any receiver in the league. The Giants have yielded the second-most fantasy points to wideouts this season, and Adams is due for a big game in a week with question marks surrounding the usual top WRs.
Barkley is in a similar situation to Adams, as he’s playing through an injury but still seeing good volume and has a favorable matchup (GB ranks 28th in run defense DVOA) during a week without many top peers at his position (Ezekiel Elliott, Alvin Kamara, and Dalvin Cook) on the main slate.
Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts
Start: Ryan Tannehill, Jack Doyle
Tannehill is remarkably up to 9.2 YPA this season, which leads the NFL by a full half yard. He’s not throwing as much as fantasy managers would like, but he’s also averaged 38.3 rushing yards while adding three rushing scores over the last three games. Tannehill enters Sunday with a big advantage up front and with emerging beast A.J. Brown on his side. To think, the Dolphins were holding back such a fantasy QB monster all these years.
With Eric Ebron placed on IR, Doyle will benefit from more targets and should be treated as a top-10 fantasy tight end down the stretch and a cheap DFS option this week.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Miami Dolphins
Start in DFS: Miles Sanders ($16)
Start: Mike Gesicki
Sanders is second among running backs in air yards this season and only five RBs had a higher snap share (86%) last week without Jordan Howard (who remains iffy). The Eagles enter as double-digit favorites and with a massive advantage up front against an inviting Miami defense, so Sanders is an RB1 this week at a much cheaper DFS price.
If you’re looking for a flier, Gesicki has seen at least six targets in each of the past four games, and he ranks fourth in air yards among tight ends over the last month. I’m setting the over/under at 1.5 YPC for Kalen Ballage against Philly’s run defense, and the Eagles have shut down wide receivers lately, so Gesicki should be busy Sunday.
New York Jets @ Cincinnati Bengals
Start: Jamison Crowder
Start in DFS: Andy Dalton ($20)
Crowder is coming off a quiet game, and the Bengals’ defense has played better recently, but he’s been targeted heavily by Sam Darnold this year. Not to mention, Cincinnati has ceded the second-most fantasy points to the slot over the last two months.
Dalton is back starting after the failed Ryan Finley experiment, and he immediately gets a Jets funnel defense that ranks No. 2 against the run yet 17th versus the pass in DVOA and has been one of the most favorable fantasy matchups for quarterbacks over the last five games. Dalton has averaged 296.3 yards with six touchdowns over three home games this season, and his minimum price ($20) makes him intriguing in DFS.
Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Sit: Kareem Hunt
Start: Steelers defense
Hunt scored last week but fumbled and most importantly saw his targets fall to three, as he continues to take a backseat to Nick Chubb in Cleveland’s backfield. Hunt can be plenty useful down the stretch in PPR leagues, but this week isn’t the right matchup against a Pittsburgh defense that’s extremely tough on running backs.
Benny Snell would be an RB2 should James Conner sit again, but either way, with Devlin Hodges taking over at QB, Pittsburgh will rely on its defense Sunday and enters with one of this week’s bigger advantages in the trenches. The Browns are playing much better coming off three straight home wins, but Baker Mayfield sports a 4:6 TD:INT over five games on the road this season, so I’m treating Pittsburgh as a top-five defense in Week 13 (and betting on its moneyline).
Washington Redskins @ Carolina Panthers
Start: Terry McLaurin, Panthers defense
McLaurin hasn’t scored in five contests after recording five touchdowns over the first five games of his career, and he’ll continue to suffer from Dwayne Haskins’ growing pains. But he saw 12 targets last week and simply can’t continue to have such bad luck when it comes to his QB repeatedly missing him with wide-open throws in the end zone. McLaurin ranks No. 4 in WOPR among all wideouts this season, and while Carolina is easier to run on, Washington will likely be forced to air it out as double-digit dogs Sunday.
Haskins has a 0:4 TD:INT ratio on the road and the Panthers have recorded the second-most sacks (41) in the NFL this year, so things could get ugly.
San Francisco 49ers @ Baltimore Ravens
Sit: Jimmy Garoppolo, Marquise Brown
Garoppolo has gotten 8.3 YPA with 13 TD strikes over the last five games, but he travels to face a Ravens defense that’s one of only two with more picks than touchdowns allowed this season and has been the stingiest unit against fantasy quarterbacks over the last five games.
Brown is a constant threat to score and did so twice last week, but his lack of volume gives him a low floor, and Baltimore should take an extra run-heavy approach against San Francisco this week.
Los Angeles Rams @ Arizona Cardinals
Start: Jared Goff, Larry Fitzgerald
Goff has a 0:5 TD:INT ratio over the last three games and plays on the road Sunday, so it’s understandable his consensus rank is the QB17 this week with few fantasy managers rushing to start him. And while no doubt Goff could prove a big problem for the Rams’ future, it’s worth noting his recent stretch has come against an extremely tough schedule (all three defenses rank top-seven in pass defense DVOA).
This week he gets an Arizona D that’s ceded the most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season along with NFL-highs in TD passes (29) and Passer Rating (113.0). This game also features the top-two teams in pace, and Goff’s WR corps is finally back to full strength (Tyler Higbee is a sleeper against the TE-friendly Cardinals if Gerald Everett is out). Even during a disastrous campaign, Goff is fourth in the NFL in passing yards this season. He bounces back with a big performance in a high-scoring affair in the desert in Week 13.
For the same reasons, treat Christian Kirk as a borderline top-15 WR and Fitzgerald as a flex this week, and while Arizona’s running back situation gets cloudier with the return of Chase Edmonds, Kenyan Drake is a big upside DFS play.
Oakland Raiders @ Kansas City Chiefs
Start: Zay Jones, Darrel Williams
Jones is a deep flier who’s stepping into a bigger role with Hunter Renfrow out, and while Oakland will want to feature Josh Jacobs heavily, game script will likely dictate otherwise while playing catch up against KC’s offense coming off a bye.
This is trickier with the afternoon game time, but Damien Williams’ sore ribs have him looking highly questionable to play, and Darrel is both cheaper than LeSean McCoy in DFS and also offers more upside at this stage of their careers (and isn’t one fumble away from the bench). Williams has no floor this week but still has RB1 potential in this matchup.
Los Angeles Chargers @ Denver Broncos
Start: Chargers defense
Sit: Courtland Sutton
After Brandon Allen produced fewer than 50 yards on 29 dropbacks last week, Drew Lock might see his first NFL action Sunday, and he’ll be doing so with an offensive line that enters overmatched on paper. Whichever inexperienced QB starts won’t have it easy after splitting practice reps all week.
Sutton has the aforementioned quarterback problem as well as Casey Hayward shadowing him, and the Chargers have allowed the fewest fantasy points to outside receivers over the last two months.
New England Patriots @ Houston Texans
Start in DFS: Julian Edelman ($22)
Sit: Will Fuller
Edelman has averaged a whopping 11.8 targets over the last six games and should remain busy Sunday night against a Houston defense that’s much easier to throw on than run against. Edelman is tied with Michael Thomas (who’s played one more game) for the NFL lead in red-zone targets (19), so more touchdowns are coming.
Fuller is even riskier than usual while playing through a hamstring injury (he looked good during his return last week but grabbed his leg at one point), and especially this week against a New England secondary that’s yielded the fewest fantasy points to outside receivers this season.
Minnesota Vikings @ Seattle Seahawks
Sit: Adam Thielen
Start: DK Metcalf
Seattle’s secondary is beatable, but especially given the Monday night start time, Thielen is awfully risky after suffering a scare in practice this week.
Metcalf is coming off a difficult two-game stretch in San Francisco and Philadelphia but remains among the league leaders in end-zone targets and gets a much easier matchup this week. With Minnesota a strong run defense and Tyler Lockett possibly still hampered by a leg injury, treat Metcalf as a top-15 WR this week.