Rafael Nadal said he expected to lose his world number two ranking to Serbia's Novak Djokovic by Wimbledon at the latest.
Nadal's defeat by Juan Carlos Ferrero in the second round in Rome last week, when he was suffering from a badly blistered foot, coupled with Djokovic's victory in the final, means he could even slip to number three this week in Hamburg.
The Spaniard had a great claycourt season last year - losing just once, to number one Roger Federer in the Hamburg final - and then went on to reach the final at Wimbledon.
Having so many points to defend leaves Nadal vulnerable and the 21-year-old knows he has no margin for error between now and Wimbledon.
"Djokovic is very close, there's no doubt about that," Nadal told reporters on Monday after his arrival at the Hamburg Masters.
"I think, no I'm certain, that the logical thing is that he goes past me here, gets to number two here or at Roland Garros or in Wimbledon.
"He's a great player and he's doing things very well. If I'm number three I'm number three. When it happens I just have to accept it and fight to get the position back."
Nadal has complained repeatedly and bitterly about this year's ATP calendar, which has three claycourt Masters Series tournaments, plus Barcelona, crammed into four weeks.
His early defeat last week may have been a blessing in disguise and he said on a sunny day in Hamburg on Monday that he felt far better physically than he had going into Rome.
"I'm better," he said. "I'm still not perfect but I've had a few days off, and I'm much better than I was in Rome.
"I just hope the weather stays nice and hot."
Meanwhile, Nadal has warned the decision of the Spanish Tennis Federation (RFET) to host their Davis Cup semi-final against the United States in Madrid could backfire.
Nadal and the rest of the Spanish players, furious that their wish to play the tie at sea level was ignored, signed a letter saying they would refuse to appear at promotional events for the RFET while Pedro Munoz remained president.
"We never had any problem with playing in Madrid," Nadal told reporters in Hamburg. "But we can't accept that the president told us 100 times that we were going to decide, and then we don't decide."
The ball moves slower at low altitude which would generally suit clay-court specialists Spain.
"What you can't do now is keep saying we're the clear favourites. We're not playing against number 50 and 60 in the world. Roddick is at number six and Blake is at eight and they have the world's number one doubles team.
"It's going to be a very difficult tie and we'll do everything we can to win but it's going to be very open and anything can happen."
Spain play the United States from September 19-21. They have only beaten the US three times in eight Davis Cup meetings, with all three coming at home, on clay and at low altitude.