SF2: New Zealand vs Australia

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RiDdLeR
28 Apr 2010
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Posted Tue 11 Oct 2011 15:52

Overall
----------
Played     142 times
All Blacks     96 wins
Australia     41 wins
Drawn     5 times

In New Zealand
--------------
Played    65 times
All Blacks    49 wins
Australia    15 wins
Drawn    1 time

Last 5 games
--------------
Australia won 25-20 in Brisbane
All Blacks won 30-14 in Auckland
Australia won 26-24 in Hong Kong
All Blacks won 23-22 in Sydney
All Blacks won 20-10 in Christchurch

Last 5 games in New Zealand
---------------------------
All Blacks won 30-14 in Auckland
All Blacks won 20-10 in Christchurch
All Blacks won 33-6 in Wellington
All Blacks won 22-16 in Auckland
All Blacks won 39-10 in Auckland

Summary
----------
The game most were expecting to be the final happens in the semi final courtesy of Australia finishing second in their pool. The two sides have both had different paths to the final. The Australians struggled in pool play and lost to Ireland before winning a torrid game against the Springboks which they were beaten everywhere but the scoreboard which counted at the end of 80 minutes. In contrast the All Blacks cruised through their pool play, easily disposing of the French before coming up against a staunch Argentine side that defended resolutely before finally succumbing to the power of the All Blacks who ran out 23 point winners. One team has been just holding on in their contests and some would say lucky to be were they are while the other team has dominated in every game to date.....

RiDdLeR
28 Apr 2010
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Posted Tue 11 Oct 2011 16:03

...
A lot has been written about the All Blacks and their injuries but when you look at the injuries, 14 of the 15 first choice players will be available on match day. All Blacks will run out with their strongest scrum on match day. Kahui and Jane will be there on the wing. Dagg will be there at fullback. Nonu and Smith in the centres. Weepu at first five. Only player from the best 15 in the country not available will be Dan Carter, albeit he is a huge loss. Australia are also getting back to full strength after a glut of injuries earlier in the tournament. Iaone will be better for his run. Beale remains a concern and whether his hammy comes up right in time for the game is something the Aussies will be keeping tightly wrapped up.

Most interest in this game will revolve around the first five spot. Not just for New Zealand as this will be the perceived weakness Australia will target but also for the Australian as Quade Cooper crumbled under the pressure of the quarter final and throughout the tournament the crowd and his mantle as the most hated person in New Zealand seems to be taking its toll on his fragile mental state.

With a home crowd behind them and the worlds best scrum which has dominated throughout this tournament I expect the All Blacks to get the lions share of possession. Pokock, as good as he is, will have his work cut out with Richie McCaw keeping a close eye on him. The Australian scrum has been woeful all tournament and look for the All Blacks to grind away at this area. Im expecting pretty much the same dominance by the All Blacks as South Africa showed against Australia. Difference between the All Blacks and South Africa is the All Blacks know how to win games and score tries. Tipping All Blacks to win by 12 points on the back of a ruthless and powerful display by the forwards. This is the game they have been waiting for and it comes a week earlier than expected.

RiDdLeR
28 Apr 2010
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Posted Tue 11 Oct 2011 16:22

Referee for this semi final will be.........{drumroll}...........Craig Joubert of South Africa.

Nigel Owens (Wales) and Romaine Poite (France). A Southern Hemisphere ref.....brilliant....although the touchies are from the 2 countries in the other semi final. Interesting both touchies are from sides still in the world cup on the other side of the draw. One wont care come game time but the other might want to dictate who his home nation plays.

ado tornado

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Posted Tue 11 Oct 2011 16:48

If our boys give the same effort they gave last weekend I wont be complaining if we lose.

I think to a degree riddles is right in that there will be focus on the first 5. But IMO he reading of what will happen is wrong. Yes Cooper is out of sorts. But he revels in games against New Zealand and his last few outings against New Zealand have been some of his best in the gold jersey. Conversely Cruden has been pulled off the field against Australia twice by Henry because he got found out.

I dont think this will be the critical part of the contest. It will be the battle of the breakdown. McCaw vs Pocock could well determine the outcome. And frankly McCaw is not playing at his rampaging best at the moment. He needs to lift.

Just a word on our scrum. It was rock solid against the Boks. They didn't take a backward step in this set piece. We also wont get rolled in the lineouts because NZ don't have a Matfield in their line up. And that means we wont be running around with absolutely no ball.

Both back lines can score tries at will. So perhaps defence may play an equally vital role again this week.

The home ground and the crowd is a great advantage. But the pressure of expectation is easily an equal disadvantage. All of NZ are jittery about this contest and rightly so.

NZ vs Oz history really doesn't mean a lot in the context of this game. If were talking about the 30 blokes on the park, then we have a distinct advantage of having been the only side in the world to defeat New Zealand a couple of times in the last 2 years. And its Australia who have won the tight ones against you recently riddler not the other way around.

My view is very simple. Right now Australia are battle hardened, mentally tough and mega keen for this game because they know they have the ammunition to win it. No other side in the comp that has faced NZ has had that belief.

It will be a cracker semi. As long as the ref doesn't decide the winner, I'll go with the scoreboard result.

RiDdLeR
28 Apr 2010
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Posted Tue 11 Oct 2011 17:21

Ado, Cooper was ok last time against us but it was Genia who was damaging in Brisbane. Cooper looked good early in the game when your forward has all their #$%$ and vinegar from playing in front of a home crowd but once that intensity went and the All Blacks started to take control Quade went missing.

As for the game before that, you have got to be kidding right. That was the Eden Park game and if he plays that to the level he played that day, he might as well not bother turning up.

Your scrum was ok against the boks but they did push you back a few times. Different story against an All Black pack because they are a notch above the springbok pack in strength and mobility.

You are right with Cruden. Thats the only nervous thing I have with him. He doesnt handle Aussie too well. But last 3 times we have played you without Carter we have won and 2 of them were in Aussie. You are playing on a ground you hate, against a team with most imposing home record of any side in the world.

Havent really seen the All Blacks come out with full intensity yet. They havent had too. But come Sunday I am predicting they will come out with the ferocity you guys showed in Brisbane and they will try and make their statement early in this game like the last Eden Park encounter.

Whatever the result, I reckon this will be the match of the tournament and I think Quade will be found wanting. The pressure he will be put under and is being put under is too intense for him. He doesnt have the mental toughness yet.

Curious to who you guys will use if Beale doesnt come up? OConnor into fullback or even Cooper with Barnes slipping into first five?

Zedds
27 Feb 2011
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Posted Wed 12 Oct 2011 04:56

Congrats Steve Tew and SANZAR

http://www.stuff.co.nz/sport/rugby/5770586/South-heavyweights-shake-IRB-money-tree

ado tornado

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Posted Wed 12 Oct 2011 08:00

Yep, good work Steve Tew and co - good result. Well if Beale doesn't start they are saying Cooper to Fb. My answer to that is they won't. You don't break up your halves combo if you don't have to. Personally I would just move O'bieber. He proved his mettle under the high ball last week and he can attack every bit as well as Beale. The other option is to drop Adam two dads back. He has 15 odd caps at FB so no probe with him either. Good to gave great options tho. As for the #$%$39;s starting with a storm and totally dominating us front, thats you hoping rather than anything based on fact. Last week it was actually our boys who smashed SA and dominated territory for the first 15. The #$%$39;s haven't started with a storm in any game yet.not saying they aren't capable of it because if anyone are they are. This won't be the walkover you think. You're right about one thing, it will be the game of the tournament and the winner of this will smash whoever they face next week.

Bish
26 Jun 2009
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Posted Wed 12 Oct 2011 08:46

Ado I really think you need to watch the game again.
Smashed and Dominated in the first 15min. The try was completely against the flow of the game. They had a good few minutes after that try but the first 10 it was all South Africa.
Also if the Wallabies win this week I wouldn't be so sure that they would go onto "smash" whoever they face next week.

I don't know how you guys ooze such confidence. Some of the quotes coming out only an Australian could make "it was offensive defense", "we don't rate your 10", "Piri isn't a world class 9 or 10", "I couldn't be more confident", Have to hand it to you guys you are forever optimists.

RiDdLeR
28 Apr 2010
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Posted Wed 12 Oct 2011 09:04

To be honest Bish, Australia have limped into the semi final. They havent looked dominant against anyone. They lost to Ireland, struggled for the first 50 against Italy and should have lost to South Africa. Two other teams also followed the same path into the finals, South Africa and England. Neither of them looked convincing in any game this tournament and both of them were found wanting when it mattered.

On current form throughout this tournament, All Blacks would have to be heavy favorites. Aside from Carter, we will have our very best 15 on the field. We have won every game this tournament with ease. Eden Park and their current form point to an easy win. The Aussies seem to think that because they beat us at Suncorp that somehow they have a psychological edge on us. All they need to do is look at their last 12 games in New Zealand against us to see who has the real psychological edge here.

ado tornado

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Posted Wed 12 Oct 2011 10:42

Of course New Zealand are heavy favourites. They should be. But my job is to talk us up not down. It's good that you've both got a healthy little does of paranoia though. It just serves my cause. Because the one thing you both have to agree on, is that if there is one side in this capable of beating you, its us.

Get through this and next week you will destroy either France or
Wales. And you will do so, because you know you can and will smash them off the park.

BTW Bish, you need to have another look. The first 15 we were on fire. It was also the last time we saw the ball for the entire game. I don't think that will be the case this week.

You have to remember too that it was only a couple of short years ago NZ would absolutely smash us at every breakdown and our set pieces were garbage. Remember Alison Baxter and Matt Dunning? Woodcock and Mealamu probably still #$%$ themselves thinking about those two.

Deans has done a marvelous job injecting starch, youth and belief into the Wallas forwards. Pocock, Horwill, Kepu, Alexander were nothing more than players with potential and no execution before he got to them. He's bought Vickerman back, found Samo and plucked players like Slipper from no where. And that's just what he's done with the boys up front. The backs story is equally impressive.

He more than anyone is to credit for the Wallas resurrection as a force in the game.

Yup your outright favourites. So even if New Zealand were to lose, you can still take solace in the fact that a Kiwi won it. And hopefully another kiwi will have played a significant part in it.

New Zealands most hated man.

Tim S
09 Oct 2008
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Posted Wed 12 Oct 2011 10:46

"On current form throughout this tournament, All Blacks would have to be heavy favorites."
Yep dead right Riddles and add to the fact it's been 25 years since Oz won at Eden Park and this game should be won by the All Blacks.A few injuries from both sides but pretty much the same line-ups,However,this is Semi final's footy and anything can happen.I'm glad Oz is seen as the under dog in this as it puts all the pressure on u guys.
If Oz lose i'll be gutted but will at least be pleased that we did better than the last WC and add to that an immense victory against the current WChamps and our Tri-nations and Super victories this year but,,,, if you guys lose..............I shudder to think.

mattack
28 Mar 2010
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Posted Wed 12 Oct 2011 11:06

6 trys for 1 win, whos the pressure on?? LOL

RiDdLeR
28 Apr 2010
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Posted Wed 12 Oct 2011 11:06

Ado, you do no justice to Pokock. He wasnt an ordinary player and never really has been throughout his career. He has always been a cut above with a lot of potential. The other three were and still are. Deans need to send your forwards away for a few years to play in the NPC in New Zealand to learn what it takes to be a world class forward.

Your scrum still has a hell of a long way to go. Like it or not, the Italian pack, Irish pack and South African pack pushed you backwards a hell of a lot more than you did to them. Problem with these sides is they play a 10 man game and dont know how to exploit this advantage with their backline quite like the All Blacks do.

And yes, if there is one side that does scare me it is the Australian one. I have said this all tournament and even 12 months out from the world cup that you are our number 1 threat. If we were playing the boks this week, I would be supremely confident because they lack the x factor Australia does. The brilliance that your backline showed in the first half against Russia is something only two sides in the world are capable of.

Also if you lose Beale that will be a massive blow for you. He has been your best player this tournament. You can shove O'Connor there but that will devalue another position. You might even find Turner get a run this week if Beale doesnt play. Personally I would be surprised if he does play. He didnt look good when he was coming off and if he was right the Aussies would be quick to mention it like they have for Horne and Kefu.

RiDdLeR
28 Apr 2010
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Posted Wed 12 Oct 2011 11:07

1 try for 1 win in New Zealand. What pressure? LOL

mattack
28 Mar 2010
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Posted Wed 12 Oct 2011 11:17

Maybe #$%$39;s should have more world cups played in NZ. lol ;)

mattack
28 Mar 2010
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Posted Wed 12 Oct 2011 11:19

OK, why can i not say A..........................B's?? Is it a bad word?? haha

RiDdLeR
28 Apr 2010
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Posted Wed 12 Oct 2011 11:37

It is an Australian forum so yes, A L L B L A C K S is a bad word

ado tornado

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Posted Wed 12 Oct 2011 12:00

Riddles, Pocock always had potential but rarely the opportunity at test level.

But it has been through the work of Deans, Mitchell at the Force and to a lesser degree Jim Williams that he has become the consistent player he has.

I would also reckon that Ritchie McCaw has been a massive influence on him. For so long the number one flanker in the game and Pocock has had to raise his own lofty standards to compete against him effectively over the past couple of years. So maybe you can blame him if Pocock has a blinder.

If you remember not so long ago we had a bloke called George Smith. So Pocock had to wait a long time to get a start.

If Beale doesn't start its a problem. A big loss in attack, but not so in defence. I can't see Dingo breaking up the halves combo, so Cooper will stay put at 10. If he wants to keep the counter attacking option strong at the back he'll pick O'Bieber and bring Fainga or Horne into the centres and slot Adam two dads on the wing. Alternatively he may drop AAC back or just chuck Barnes there. All good options, just a matter of how he wants to play it.

I cant see him throwing Turner in at this point. Maybe a bench selection. But if Horne is fit, I cant see that either.

And yes, A L L B L A C K S is a bad word. Its actually evil.

RiDdLeR
28 Apr 2010
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Posted Wed 12 Oct 2011 16:47

Ado, bad news for you guys. Beale didnt have a strain. He has a small tear. They rate him a 20% chance of playing at best and that would be extremely optimistic with a tear.

I think you will likely have a backline of Genia, Cooper, Barnes, Horne, Iaone, OConnor and Ashley Cooper. Both Horne and Iaone are a little suspect with injuries. Think due to a lack of wingers and the fact so many of the squad can play in the centres that you will find Ashley Cooper as fullback. Bench for your backline will be very thin. You have a glut of halfbacks but very little everywhere else. Might have a bench similar to the Russian game.

You have plenty of coverage in your forwards but if any injuries happen between now and match day or in the match you are right up shyt creek without a paddle.

ado tornado

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Posted Wed 12 Oct 2011 22:20

Hmmm not so sure here riddles. Options are: 1 O'bieber to FB Turner or Horne to wing. 2: AAC to FB and either Faingaa or Horne to 13. 3: Barnes to FB and o movement elsewhere or Cooper to FB and Banes to 10. All valid options but I can't see Dino splitting his halves so there goes that option. I'd go for O'bieber and chuck Horne on the wing to deal with Sbw. But that's just me. At worst the bench will have Burgess, Barnes and Faiingaa or Horne or TurNer. So it won't look anything like the Russian bench at all in fact. For someone so smart you get things constantly wrong hey riddles?

vismyr
19 Jul 2009
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Posted Thu 13 Oct 2011 08:58

I've stayed on here in Auckland at my cuz's place and the vibe here is incredible. The Wallaby supporters are starting to come out and be more vocal...and the atmosphere is electric. Will McCaw play, or won't he? Will Beale recover or will Dean's need to reshuffle the backline again? Aussies making light of the Eden Park hoodoo...All Blacks making light that they've never beaten the Wallabies at the World Cup. Both media trying to play mind games and get any advantage they can. Absolutely loving it -- can't wait for this weekend. It's only Thursday and I'm already on the edge of my seat...this is going to be fantastic!

Will wait for the teams to be named before adding my thoughts and prediction for this match, but just wanted to add I can't believe on form that any Wallaby supporter who thinks if they win this semi that they are a shoe in for winning the final -- that totally undermines the form of your team and the form of Wales and the unpredictability of France. Discount them at your peril!

mattack
28 Mar 2010
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Posted Thu 13 Oct 2011 13:57

"but just wanted to add I can't believe on form that any Wallaby supporter who thinks if they win this semi that they are a shoe in for winning the final -- that totally undermines the form of your team and the form of Wales and the unpredictability of France. Discount them at your peril!"

It has been pointed out many times so far that Wallabies have limped through the comp and NZ have breezed through every game. So who should be pointing the finger at being overly confident of getting to the finals and winning it??
Hey, we are the ones with our backs against the wall with this game. It will be a case of supprised Wallabies won then supprised Wallabies lost.

At least our nation does not have to seek psychological help if we don't win the rugby world cup! LOL

Kels
23 Dec 2008
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Posted Thu 13 Oct 2011 14:08

NZ 24 OZ 17

Kim
0 seconds ago
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Posted Thu 13 Oct 2011 14:14

There is a world of difference between the mindset of "We can win" and "We must NOT lose". The whole of New Zealand is terrified of losing the World Cup (again) and that has to screw with their minds. There is no history of this match - it will be written on the day - go Wallabies!

Tim S
09 Oct 2008
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Posted Thu 13 Oct 2011 15:33

One thing i've noticed latley is how defensive teams are really targeting the ball in the tackle and trying to keep the ball in the air and there-for turning it into a maul.If it is not released when the ref calls for it they win the ball.
It's a tatic i think NZ will use on the week-end and Australia have to go into the tackle not too upright or we will turn it over.
NZ always do something different in these big games wether it be a different kick off approach or targeting a specific percieved weakness in their opponant.
Looking at the SB game last week Oz's line out was really poor(i know we were up against Matfield and co)but they pressurd us and we lost a lot of ball.NZ we have a good go there for sure.
Obviously they'll attack our scrum as Ireland did so that's another area they'll have a go.
I bet they'll do some sneaky/different at re-starts.Maybe short and shallow as Oz haven't been great at re-start's of late.
Oz need to start well not like our last excursion to Eden Park.If we even got a bit of lead early NZ under the weight of exspectation could implode....he he
So many possibilities