Collingwood captain Scott Burns has conceded the Magpies' prospects of securing a finals double-chance will be on the line when they clash with the team best-placed to claim the coveted fourth spot, Sydney, on Saturday night.
Holding down seventh spot on the ladder, the Magpies (7-6) trail the fourth-placed Swans (9-1-3) by six premiership points, and Burns agreed that a loss at ANZ Stadium would effectively shut the door on the top four.
"Knowing that we're probably challenging Sydney (for a top four spot), if Sydney knock us off it makes it pretty hard to catch up, but if we can get the points then that fourth spot may be open to three or four other teams," Burns said at Melbourne airport on Friday.
"This will give us a little bit of an idea, but we're pretty confident within ourselves we know where we're at."
Quizzed about the Pies' recent good record against Sydney - they've won the past four contests including two at Saturday night's venue - Burns said: "It's nearly 12 months since we last played them and there's a few different players each since into the team and we're playing them up there at their home ground, so it's pretty tough."
He said the absence of the injured Anthony Rocca, who has reserved some of his best performances of recent seasons for the Swans, would be offset to some extent by the suspension of Adam Goodes.
The dual Brownlow medallist was influential and productive in all three clashes with Collingwood last season, averaging 29 disposals and nine marks.
"He's probably been their best player the last three or four times, but it's such an even team that if any side can lose their No.1 onballer and cover them very well then it's Sydney," Burns said of Goodes.
"We know it's going to be very tough with him or without him."
Burns said the break for the bye had been timely and the playing group had been freshened up and was not far away from producing its very best form.
"We really want to have a good run in the next nine weeks," he said.
"Another four or five weeks will give us more of an indication where we really are at ... whether we can challenge the top teams or not."
"We've probably let ourselves down in 10 minutes of football in quite a few games and I would think that in three to three and-a-half quarters of football against every team we've played against, we've accounted ourselves pretty well."
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