It did not take long for the usual calls for a draft lottery to surface once tanking hit the headlines again this week.
Presidents and former coaches joined in the free-for-all, banging on about the bottom team not having the certainty of the top pick.
Last place would get 10 balls in the bag, second last nine balls and so on. Then the first 10 picks would be drawn out.
It is a nice thought, but it is also too simplistic. Imagine a side which wins 13 of 22 games, missing the finals on percentage, somehow winning the lottery and snaring pick No.1? Ridiculous.
The league needs to be brave and adventurous and think outside the square. I have floated this idea twice in columns in the past 18 months and there has never been a better time than now to go for it.
The key to solving the tanking problem is ensuring that not as much weight is given to 'junk' matches late in seasons, for the microscope often unfairly switches on in the final four to five rounds every year.
It is time the AFL took the heat off those final matches with a simple solution. Bring ladder position after EVERY round into consideration when deciding draft order to lessen the reward for losing late games.
The key determining factor would be average ladder position across all rounds of the season, not just at the end of it.
So manipulating positions late in the season would become less effective, for Round 1 would be just as important as the final round in determining draft order.
Let’s get to the finer detail:
The draft order of the top eight teams would be arranged as it always has been - on positions at the end the end of the finals series. Eg: Sydney would be pick No.18 in 2012.
But with the bottom 10 (the tank zone), average ladder position should be the determining factor.
For example, take St Kilda’s ladder position at the end of each round last season and divide it by 23 and you come up with an average of 8.6. That is the key number.
Essendon averaged 5.6 even though it missed the eight and so on.
If the draft was held tomorrow, it would be run in order from the highest average ladder position to the lowest.
The average ladder position system generally matches that of the final ladder, but it would take all of the focus away from later games.
The pattern would be well and truly set by the time we reached the final month as every round would be worth the same. It would be far more difficult to manipulate ladder spots.
A team’s spot in the draft pecking order would be set much earlier.
Makes sense doesn’t it?
HOW IT WOULD WORK
TOP 8Finishing order after finals, as is the practice now.
BOTTOM 10Ranking determined by average ladder position across all rounds, taking much of the sting (and potential stink) out of late season games.
Using the formula last season, the order of the top 10 (with round-by-round ladder position average in brackets) would have been:
1. GWS (17.4)2. Gold Coast (17.2)
3. Melbourne (16.3)
4. West Bulldogs (14.2)
5. Port Adelaide (13.8)
6. Brisbane Lions (12.9)
7. Richmond (11.9)
8. St Kilda (8.6)
9. Carlton (7.5)
10. Essendon (5.6)
Twitter: @Stevo7AFL
14 Comments
Chrissy Smithers- Pyne loves men in tight shorts
1 Replyreligation would fix it
2 RepliesI say remove any doubt and let them take drugs, drop the salary cap, and really make it a free for all, this will open the door for all to compete on even ground, what a load of tripe when all this chite exists already, they already bet on each other, remember Maxwell's bet....ahhhh I am wasting my time here
ReplyMark Stevens, unfortunately YOUR version of a lottery is not what is practiced in most leagues around the world. For instance, in the NBA, out of 14 teams in the lottery, only the 4 WORST teams, have a chance of getting the number 1 pick. There is literally NO chance of a team from 5th to 14th worst getting the top pick and as the teams are ranked, it is a sliding scale downwards, so a team with the best record of the non-playoff positioned teams (i.e. 14th worst team), can only get either pick 13 or 14. Please research your articles a little better. NOBODY would go for a simple lottery where even 9th place in the AFL could get Pick No. 1. A REAL lottery draft would mean that only places 15 - 18 have a chance of getting pick 1!
3 RepliesHave a league and cup competition like English soccer. At the end of August there is the league champions and in September top plays bottom at home in a knock out comp. for the cup champs. Huge incentive not to lose, a 'league and cup double" possibility and every game there is an incentive for people to turn up and watch. A win-win all round.
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